Bitcoin has recently shown an intensifying trend of volatility, with prices influenced by a multitude of factors: the nearing end of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle and fluctuations in the dollar index weaken its safe-haven attributes, while escalating geopolitical risks stimulate some capital inflow into crypto assets; the U.S. SEC's stance on the approval of spot ETFs remains a key policy variable, and the pace of institutional entry has slowed; on-chain data shows an increase in the proportion of long-term holders, with the market entering a stage of existing stock competition. In the short term, technical support around $40,000 is relatively strong, but the liquidity contraction in a high-interest rate environment may suppress rebound potential. In the medium to long term, it still relies on the narrative of the halving cycle and the process of compliance, and one must be cautious of the risks of severe volatility caused by regulatory uncertainty and leveraged liquidations.