Original title: (Ethereum surges 50% in a week targeting $3000, Bitcoin ETF attracts $41 billion igniting the bull market)
Original author: Lawrence, Mars Finance
Market overview: Ethereum leads, crypto assets explode across the board
In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has welcomed a new round of excitement. Ethereum (ETH) strongly broke through the $2700 level, reaching a high of $2725, with a daily increase of 8%, accumulating a total increase of over 50% in the past 7 days, marking its best weekly performance since 2022.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose to $104,200, with a 24-hour increase of 1.5%, remaining above $100,000; Solana (SOL) rose over 5% to $185, and meme coins like Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB) followed with increases of 4%-5%. Behind this round of explosive growth, record inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, Ethereum's technological upgrades, and a shift in the macroeconomic environment have resonated, pushing the crypto market into a new phase of 'institutional bull.'
Bitcoin ETF: Counter-cyclical capital inflow exceeds $41 billion, becoming the core channel for institutional entry
1. Historic breakthrough: Record fund inflows
As of May 13, the cumulative net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. reached $41.1 billion, surpassing the peak of February 2024 and setting a new historical record. This data indicates that since approval in January, traditional financial institutions' demand for Bitcoin allocation has continued to heat up, even during the market correction in April, funds still flowed in steadily.
2. Policy and market sentiment resonance
At the beginning of the year, the (stablecoin regulatory bill) pushed by the Trump administration and the nomination of pro-crypto individuals as SEC chair cleared policy hurdles for ETFs. Although there was a brief outflow of funds (a cumulative outflow of $5 billion) due to concerns over the global trade war in March-April, with the U.S.-UK tariff agreement reached and China-U.S. trade negotiations resumed, risk appetite rebounded, and ETF inflows surged to $882 million in a single week in May, accelerating institutional 'bottom fishing.'
3. Analyst views: Long-term confidence indicators
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out: 'Net inflows are the most genuine confidence indicators; even during the peak of tariff panic under Trump, funds quickly flowed back in, proving that Bitcoin's 'digital gold' narrative has gained mainstream recognition.' ETF.com analyst Sumit Roy added that ETFs lower the participation threshold for retail and institutional investors, becoming a core driving force for Bitcoin to break through $100,000.
Ethereum surges: Technical upgrades + short squeeze + large whale accumulation as triple engines
1. Pectra upgrade implemented, strengthening technical barriers
On May 7, Ethereum successfully implemented the Pectra upgrade, introducing key technologies such as account abstraction (EIP-7702) and increasing staking limits, significantly reducing gas fees and enhancing network flexibility. This upgrade is seen as a key move to compete against rival public chains like Solana, directly stimulating developer and investor confidence.
2. The futures market 'short squeeze' ignites short-term trading
Starting May 8, large-scale liquidations of short positions in the Ethereum futures market occurred, with a cumulative liquidation amount reaching $438 million, far exceeding the long liquidation amount ($211 million). The price surge forced shorts to cover their positions, creating an upward spiral. During the same period, Ethereum's open interest surged by 25% ($21.28 billion → $26.77 billion), with the perpetual contract funding rate rising to 0.15%, indicating a market dominated by longs.
3. Strategic accumulation by large whale addresses
On-chain data shows that 'whales' holding more than 10,000 ETH have been continuously accumulating since late April, with their holdings rising to the highest level since March 2025 (over 40.75 million ETH). Whale movements typically indicate large investors' recognition of mid-to-long-term value, further solidifying bullish market expectations.
Macro drivers: Cooling inflation and trade easing boost risk assets
1. Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations rise
In April, the U.S. CPI rose 2.3% year-on-year (previous value 2.8%), close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, while the core CPI rose only 0.2% month-on-month, below expectations. After the data was released, the market's bets on the probability of an interest rate cut in September rose to 48.9%, and the expectation of liquidity easing stimulated funds to flow into the crypto market.
2. Global trade tensions ease
On May 8, the U.S. and UK reached a tariff agreement, reducing the tariff on UK car exports to the U.S. from 27.5% to 10% and eliminating steel tariffs; the resumption of trade negotiations between China and the U.S. weakened the risk of a 'tariff war.' The dismantling of trade barriers creates a favorable environment for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
3. Traditional financial market linkage
The Nasdaq Index and S&P 500 Index rose by 1.6% and 0.7%, respectively, with technology stocks and crypto assets strengthening in sync. Greg Magadini, head of derivatives at Amberdata, pointed out: 'ETH's correlation with U.S. stocks is increasing; if risk assets continue to rebound, Ethereum is likely to break through the $2800 resistance.'
Market concerns: High-level fluctuations and technical risks
1. Options market harbors signals of correction
Despite the surge in spot prices, Ethereum options implied volatility remains low, indicating that the market is unprepared for a short-term explosion. Deribit data shows that $2800 is a key gamma resistance level; if it cannot be effectively broken, profit-taking may occur.
2. Institutional fund differentiation
The inflow capability of Bitcoin ETFs far exceeds that of other assets (Ethereum ETF weekly inflow is only $1.5 million), and competition from other public chains like Solana and Sui is diverting funds (Sui YTD inflow is $84 million), which may exacerbate market volatility.
3. Regulatory and geopolitical variables
Trump's 'digital gold strategy' remains uncertain, and the SEC's review of Ethereum's security attributes has not yet concluded. If there is a sudden shift in policy direction, the market may face severe adjustments.
Conclusion: The second half of the bull market begins, seeking structural opportunities amidst volatility
This round of explosive growth in the cryptocurrency market is both a milestone in the institutionalization process of Bitcoin ETFs and a result of the resonance between Ethereum's technological ecosystem and macroeconomic benefits. In the short term, the market needs to digest the gains and pay attention to the key resistance at $2800; in the medium to long term, institutional funds entering the market, technological upgrades, and the interest rate cut cycle may jointly support the continuation of the bull market. Investors should focus on ETH/BTC, spot ETF dynamics, the Federal Reserve's policy path, and Layer 2 ecosystem progress, seizing structural opportunities amid volatility.
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