Altseason is not a rallying cry; it is a multivariate market configuration that can be quantified. Let's look at the same gauges that, in May 2021, actually validated the alt cycle – and compare them to the current values (May 14, 2025).
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1. Capital rotation
• May 2021: ETH/BTC goes from 0.03 to 0.088 (+190%) in six weeks, signaling the risk transfer away from Bitcoin. ([Reddit][1])
• Today: ratio 0.022, lowest in four years, still in a downward trend. ([Medium][2])
• Altcoin Season Index: 75–100 in May 2021 (alt capital ≈ 130% of BTC market cap). ([CoinMarketCap][3])
32/100 as we speak: we are formally in 'Bitcoin season'. ([CoinMarketCap][4])
Conclusion: rotation is non-existent.
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2. Implied volatility
• May 2021: the DVOL ETH–BTC spread turns negative for the first time (ETH > 100% IV, BTC ≈ 80%), indicating a risk premium on alts. ([CoinDesk][5])
• February 2025: DVOL ETH peak at 101% during the flash-crash, fallen below 70% since. ([CoinDesk][6])
No sustainable buying volatility structure on the alts.
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3. Sector outperformance
• 2021 Cycle: Avalanche goes from $15 (Sept.) to $146 (Nov.). ([CoinMarketCap][7], [CoinMarketCap][8])
• Today: $26, down –82% from the peak. ([CoinMarketCap][9])
• NEAR: ATH $20 (Jan. 2022) vs $3.2 today (–84%). ([Uphold][10], [CoinMarketCap][11])
The 'leadership list' of L1 is underwater; none outperform BTC over 90 days.
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4. Liquidity (stablecoins)
• Week 15 2021: +1.48 billion USDT issued in seven days, an absolute record at the time. ([insights.glassnode.com][12])
• May 2025: total market capitalization of stablecoins +14% YTD ($180 billion) but net outflows of –$273 million since Binance last week. ([Blockchain News][13], [Cryptoquant][14])
Increase in supply without net inflow to exchanges = dry powder, not deployment.
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5. Technical breadth
• 2021: the 200-day altcoin breadth index > 30; broad bullish diffusion.
• 2025: breadth at 15, half the historical threshold preceding major expansions. ([AInvest][15])
Weekly configurations remain below their key averages; no confirmed breakout.
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Summary
None of the five bricks that propelled the altseason in 2021 are present. The narrative 'buy your alts now' is therefore based on emptiness; it fuels FOMO but not statistics.
#CryptoTrading #RiskManagement #MarketStructure #Altcoins #PasUnCasino
