The message that "ETH is about to explode" relies on simplistic graphical analogies and emotional slogans. An analysis of current data reveals a more nuanced reality.
1. ETH/BTC Ratio: A Rebound, but Far from All-Time Highs
In May 2021, the ETH/BTC ratio reached a high of 0.08, indicating a strong outperformance of Ethereum versus Bitcoin. Currently, this ratio has recovered to 0.02576 after hitting a low of 0.01867 in early May 2025, a decline of more than 75% from the 2021 peak. While this rebound is notable, it remains insufficient to speak of ETH dominance over BTC.
2. Implied Volatility: A One-Time Increase, Not a Sustainable Trend
Ethereum's implied volatility (IV) increased significantly, rising from 34% to 184% in one day during a recent price drop. However, this increase in volatility is linked to a specific event and does not reflect a bullish trend.
3. Network Activity: Fundamentals Still Weak
Despite technical improvements, activity on the Ethereum network remains subdued. Transactions and active addresses have not returned to the levels seen during previous bull cycles, suggesting adoption remains limited.
4. Technical Analysis: A Consolidating Market Structure
Ethereum's price recently broke through significant resistance, reaching 2604 before retreating to the 2470–2480 range. This sideways movement indicates market hesitation and does not yet confirm a clear bullish trend.
While there are positive signs, such as the rebound in the ETH/BTC ratio and some technical improvements, current data does not support such a categorical statement as "ETH is about to explode." A cautious approach, based on a thorough analysis of technical and fundamental indicators, is recommended.
