Expected Altcoins to Experience Strong Rebound
Looking ahead, the recent rise to $100,000 confirmed the previous support reversal at $90,000. The market is likely to once again challenge historical highs, with funds from MicroStrategy and ETFs seemingly flowing continuously.
In contrast, until yesterday, most veteran players in the cryptocurrency space were still observing (or even shorting). As expectations of new historical highs reignite market enthusiasm, a strong rebound in the total market capitalization of altcoins is anticipated.
Market dynamics have changed. "People want to buy in, but lack confidence in any strong narratives." Unlike in 2021, there are currently no signs of retail investors entering the market. Traders are turning over their funds more quickly and have little motivation to hold long positions.
Current on-chain data shows that Bitcoin selling pressure is easing, while institutional funds from ETFs and other sources are flooding in, changing the market structure. Previously, the Bitcoin market was primarily composed of veteran whales, miners, and retail investors, making it easier to identify cycle tops; however, now with the participation of ETFs, MicroStrategy, institutions, and government entities, the traditional logic of "whales selling triggers a top" is becoming ineffective. In this new environment, more attention should be paid to the incremental institutional funds flowing in, rather than the old selling pressure signals.
Since December last year, most altcoins have dropped 90%. This week's 10% slight rebound has triggered excessive optimism. Even though most altcoins have risen by 30-50% and some have even doubled, when viewed from a broader perspective, many still have not recovered their losses. A slight rebound in meme coins does not mean that the altcoin season has arrived.
Currently, BTC's market share remains close to 60%. Overall, it is still difficult to say that we have entered an altcoin season, and the coins that are seeing good gains are mostly exhibiting "local bull market" performances.
