Market Trends
$BTC surged yesterday due to favorable US-China tariff negotiations but dropped to $10,000 after a spike due to profit-taking, currently stabilizing around $102,000. $ETH also surged to $2,600 after profit-taking and has now retreated to around $2,400. $SOL spiked to $180 before retracing to $170, still needing on-chain support to stabilize, following the main market trend, with all sectors except PayFi experiencing declines.
Today's CPI data may impact market sentiment. If the inflation data does not support a rate cut in June, the optimistic sentiment regarding rate cuts may shatter, exacerbating Bitcoin's pullback.
Short-term market trend prediction.
The intraday market may form a bottom at the current position, with RSI and MACD showing slight bottom divergence trends, and there may be a short-term rebound. The rebound peak is expected at $103,000, which is a resistance and support exchange position, and the liquidation map shows a large number of short positions, suggesting that the market makers may defend this position. It is recommended to open short positions around $100,300.
If it breaks below $92,700, the bullish pattern may change, forming a head and shoulders pattern, establishing a top structure. However, the weekly outlook remains bullish, and the pullback is only a short-term adjustment.
Pullback targets and trading strategies
This pullback may last a long time with a deep amplitude, with target levels between $98,000 and $100,000. This range aligns closely with the midline of the Bollinger Bands ($97,600), the previous left-side highs ($98,000), and the MA10-day moving average (about $98,000), serving as a strong support area. It is recommended to build positions in the spot market in the range of $98,000 to $100,000, while contracts can participate moderately. If it breaks below $93,000, a bearish outlook is necessary, being cautious of the bullish pattern collapsing. Currently, the main outlook remains bullish, with the pullback being a healthy adjustment to build momentum for future rises.
Recently, the TRUMP token, which ignited the crypto world due to 'having dinner with Trump', has seen severe fluctuations. On-chain data shows that among the addresses originally ranked in the top 220, 17 wallets have chosen to liquidate, including the 25th largest holder 'noah'.
Previously, Trump boldly promised that the top 220 holders of the TRUMP token could have dinner with him, while the top 25 would receive VIP treatment and even be able to 'visit the White House'. This promotion once drove the market cap of TRUMP to surge, triggering a FOMO wave.
However, as of May 12, the wallets ranked in the top 220 collectively held over 13.7 million TRUMP (valued at about $17.4 million), but some early large holders chose to cash out during the hype.
It is worth noting that the current largest wallet of TRUMP, 'SUN', has been identified by on-chain analysis platform Arkham as belonging to the Seychelles exchange HTX, and Sun Yuchen is the global advisor for HTX, sparking speculation about the behind-the-scenes manipulation of the token.
Meanwhile, retail investors have begun to buy. Monitoring shows that a giant whale lost $453,000 within three days: buying 276,000 TRUMP at $14.4 and then selling at $12.8.
The 'dinner myth' of Trump Coin is gradually revealing the bubble side. In the end, it may just be a mess, with retail investors left holding the bag.
Finally, here's a thought on buying coins: coins with large contract positions.
1. First of all, if the contract position occupies a high proportion of the market value, it indicates that there are sufficient counterparties for both long and short.
2. The higher their contract position, even exceeding the market value, indicates that the market makers are stronger and have more chips, providing strong upward momentum.
3. Due to sufficient closing positions, once the upward movement begins (or a downward crash), high-leverage counterparties will definitely panic and run away, fueling the upward movement.
I particularly like coins with large contract positions such as MOODENGE, PNUT, HIPPO, BR, GOAT, SWARMS, VINE.
Finally, don't forget to follow us, let's achieve financial freedom together in this bull market, okay!
