Market Analysis on May 13 (Mainly Short Selling)

1. News

1. The US-China trade agreement was positively implemented yesterday, leading to a rapid rise in the market.

2. The three major US stock indices surged collectively, while BTC fell against the trend by 2.2%, breaking below the 101,000 mark. This rare divergence mainly stems from:

(1) Funds rotating from the crypto market to the stock market;

(2) Continuous rise in US Treasury yields (10-year approaching 4.5%);

(3) Diminishing expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

3. The US CPI data will be released at 8:30 PM; be cautious of an upward spike, which is also an opportunity to participate in short positions.

2. Technical Analysis

1. Current quote 102,300 for #BTC . The price surged due to news yesterday and then fell back, showing “efforts without results,” and subsequently broke down as expected in the early morning. The 4-hour indicators are diverging, and the price needs further repair. The small structure has already broken; attention should be paid to the reaction during the pullback, and there isn't much demand observed yet. There will be news interference in the evening; once an upward spike occurs, the 104,500-106,000 range is a good short point. Intraday, one can consider shorting near 103,000, with support at 100,500 and 96,000.

2. Current quote 2,450 for #ETH . Yesterday, it moved up with the market but failed to hold above 2,600, resulting in a pullback. Currently, looking at the 4-hour price, it has exhausted, with Macd showing a death cross and volume decreasing. Attention is needed to construct an M-top for further decline. The price is currently running above the 30-minute Vegas; watch for subsequent breakdown situations to follow the trend for short positions. The structure shows a potential bullish shark pattern, with the D point expected around 2,315; this position is a take-profit point for short positions and an entry point for long positions. Be cautious of Ethereum's downward adjustment triggering a chain liquidation price acceleration!!