Market Analysis on May 12

I. News

1. Key data to focus on this week: Tuesday CPI/PPI, Thursday retail data.

2. Main focus on three major geopolitical events today:

(1) Russia and Ukraine are expected to start ceasefire negotiations on May 15.

(2) India-Pakistan conflict has temporarily paused under U.S. mediation.

(3) Sino-U.S. tariff negotiations.

II. Technical Analysis

1. Current quote #BTC is 104000. The weekly chart shows a large bullish candle, but the mild rise over the weekend lacked volume, and the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies did not reach a new high, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The 4-hour Bollinger Bands are showing a potential reversal signal, with attention on the lower support, which also corresponds to the Vegas positions on the 30-minute and 1-hour charts. It is not recommended to chase highs during the day; focus on buying on dips. Short-term support is at 102000-101500, and resistance is at 106300.

2. Current quote #ETH is 2515. Market sentiment towards Ethereum is exuberant, with retail investors favoring the second-largest cryptocurrency over Bitcoin, causing the price to remain high. However, there is significant short-term volatility, and from a technical perspective, it is more likely to make some pullback movements. The upward slope has also been disrupted, and pulling back to around 2300 would be healthier for subsequent increases. The 4-hour Bollinger Bands middle line is marked at around 2435; if there is a pullback, it may retest the high point at 2600, so wait for price reactions within the range. Support at 2440, 2300; resistance at 2550, 2600. Focus on buying during the day.