📉 Everyone’s betting on Fed rate cuts — but the bond market might have a different plan.
💵 Goldman Sachs is calling for a decline in short-term Treasury yields, but warns: don’t expect a smooth ride. With inflation still sticky and debt piling up, any real steepening of the yield curve could be messy, not bullish.
🧭 Regarding a steeping curve.
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📊 The Fed’s “data-dependent” stance is basically a waiting game. And that means every CPI print, every job report, every Powell pause gets weaponized by the market. Short yields may fall, but long-term rates are under pressure from rising debt and inflation risk — that's not exactly soft landing territory.
📈 A steepening curve might not signal optimism — it might just be the market bracing for impact.