1. China and the United States reached a tariff suspension agreement: the 24% tariffs on both sides were suspended for the initial 90 days
China and the United States issued a joint statement on the Geneva economic and trade talks, suspending the implementation of the 24% tariffs on both sides for the initial 90 days, while retaining the remaining 10% tariffs on these goods in accordance with the provisions of the executive order. The United States will cancel the additional tariffs imposed on China by the executive orders on April 8 and April 9. China will suspend or cancel the non-tariff countermeasures against the United States from April 2. CICC analysis pointed out that the previous expectation was to drop to 80% (Trump’s statement last week) or 54% (20% fentanyl + 10% equivalence), and this time it was directly reduced to 30% (20% fentanyl + 10% equivalence, 24% exemption for 90 days). Therefore, market sentiment has been significantly boosted.
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2. Large amount of token unlocking this week
In the next 7 days, large single unlocking (unlocking amount greater than 5 million US dollars) includes CONX FTN APT ARB AVAX ZKJ STRK IMX SEI APE MELANIA BB CYBER XCN, etc.; large linear unlocking (single-day unlocking amount greater than 1 million US dollars) in the next 7 days includes SOL WLD TIA DOGE TAO AVAX SUI DOT IP MORPHO NEAR ETHFI JTO FIL ENS SEI, etc., with a total unlocking value of over 774 million US dollars.
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3. Strategy increased its holdings by 13,390 Bitcoins between May 5 and May 11
Strategy purchased 13,390 bitcoins between May 5 and May 11, with an average value of $99,856 per bitcoin, totaling $1.34 billion. As of May 11, 2025, Strategy holds a total of 568,840 bitcoins, with a purchase cost of approximately $39.41 billion and an average purchase price of $69,287.
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4. CryptoQuant founder: “Dark” stablecoins are likely to appear in the future
Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, tweeted that "dark" stablecoins are likely to appear in the future. There are two ways to create dark stablecoins: 1. Algorithmic stablecoins that are not controlled by the government; 2. Stablecoins issued by countries that do not perform financial censorship. USDT was once considered a censorship-resistant stablecoin. If Tether refuses to cooperate with US supervision during the Trump administration in the future, it may be regarded as a "dark stablecoin."
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5. Lido DAO launches emergency vote to replace Chorus One oracle whose private key was leaked
Lido Finance announced that due to the suspected leakage of the Chorus One node private key, Lido DAO will initiate an emergency vote to replace its corresponding oracle node. The project emphasized that the protocol is still running safely, the pledgers are not affected, and its oracle system uses a 9-choose-5 multi-signature mechanism. The remaining 8 nodes have no abnormal signs after inspection.
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6. Wu said this week's macroeconomic indicators and analysis: US inflation data CPI, PPI
summary
Last week, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected; this week, the focus will be on the US April inflation data, such as CPI and PPI. The market generally expects that the tariff transmission effect will emerge, and inflation may rise in the coming months, which will in turn affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.
Last week review
China’s Caixin Services PMI for April was 50.7, down from 51.9 in March and also below expectations of 51.7.
The Federal Reserve announced the interest rate decision (ceiling) at 4.50%, in line with expectations of 4.50% and the previous value of 4.50%.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at a press conference that the current monetary policy stance still has the flexibility to respond to economic changes in a timely manner, but if inflation and unemployment rise simultaneously, it will face complex decisions. He pointed out that the interest rate cut in 2024 is not a preventive measure and is even slightly delayed. The recent rise in inflation expectations is mainly driven by tariffs. If tariffs continue, the inflationary effect may be more lasting. When asked about Trump's pressure to cut interest rates, Powell responded: "This does not affect our work. We will always use policy tools to support full employment and achieve price stability as our goal."
The Bank of England cut its base rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% from 4.5%.
This week's key events & indicators
May 13th
U.S. April unadjusted CPI annual rate (20:30)
The Bank of Japan released a summary of the opinions of the board members of the April Monetary Policy Meeting (07:50)
May 15
Number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending May 10 (10,000 people) (20:30)
US PPI annual rate in April (20:30)
Federal Reserve holds second Thomas Laubach research conference
May 16
U.S. one-year inflation rate forecast for May (22:00)
U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index preliminary value for May (22:00)
