Table of contents:
1. This week's large token unlock data;
2. Overview of the crypto market, quick read on the weekly rise and fall of popular coins/fund flows;
3. Bitcoin spot ETF dynamics;
4. #BTC Interpretation of liquidation map data;
5. This week's key macro events and highlights from the crypto market forecasts and interpretations.
1. This week's large token unlock data;
Coinank data shows that this week various tokens such as APT, ARB, and AVAX will undergo a one-time unlock. The following are sorted by unlock value in UTC+8 time:
Aptos (APT) will unlock about 11.31 million tokens at 2 AM on May 13, accounting for 1.82% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $67.5 million.
Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock about 92.65 million tokens at 9 PM on May 16, accounting for 1.95% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $42.7 million.
Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock about 1.67 million tokens at 8 AM on May 17, accounting for 0.4% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $41.3 million.
Starknet (STRK) will unlock about 127 million tokens at 8 AM on May 15, accounting for 4.09% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $23 million.
Immutable (IMX) will unlock about 24.52 million tokens at 8 AM on May 16, accounting for 1.35% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $17.9 million.
Sei (SEI) will unlock about 55.56 million tokens at 8 PM on May 15, accounting for 1.09% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $14.5 million.
Melania Meme (MELANIA) will unlock about 26.25 million tokens at 8 AM on May 18, accounting for 6.63% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $10.4 million.
ApeCoin (APE) will unlock about 15.6 million tokens at 8:30 PM on May 17, accounting for 1.95% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $10.3 million.
We believe that the concentration of token unlocks across multiple projects this week may have a significant impact on market supply and demand and price volatility. Key points are as follows:
APT has the largest unlock scale but relatively low dilution. Although the unlock amount for Aptos (APT) reaches $67.5 million, it only accounts for 1.82% of the circulating supply, which limits the dilution effect compared to other projects. Historical data shows that the APT team tends to release positive information before unlocks to hedge against selling pressure, which may alleviate short-term price downside risks. However, its long-term unlock plan still poses concerns, and subsequent market absorption capacity should be monitored.
The high proportion of unlock risk for STRK and MELANIA is prominent. The unlocks for Starknet (STRK) and MELANIA account for 4.09% and 6.63% of the circulating supply, significantly higher than other projects. STRK's previous unlock in August 2024 caused a 12% weekly price drop, and similar volatility should be monitored this time. As a meme coin, MELANIA has strong speculative attributes in the community, and a high unlock proportion may exacerbate price fluctuations.
Market strategy differentiation to cope with selling pressure. Projects with lower unlock proportions such as AVAX (0.4% circulating supply) and ARB (1.95%) have relatively controllable market impacts. However, historical data for ARB shows an average drop of 8% within 30 days after the unlock. Some projects may spread selling pressure through off-market OTC transactions or hedge liquidity shocks through ecological progress.
Overall, large unlocks pose a challenge to short-term market liquidity, but the project team's market value management strategies and market sentiment will dominate the actual impact. We need to pay attention to on-chain data changes and project dynamics before and after the unlock to assess real risk exposure.
2. Overview of the crypto market, quick read on the weekly rise and fall of popular coins/fund flows in sectors
CoinAnk data shows that in the past week, the crypto market has seen net inflows in various conceptual sectors, including Layer 1, Ethereum ecosystem, smart contracts, Binance smart contracts, Real World Assets, and Solana ecosystem.
In the past 7 days, the list of coins with the highest increase (selecting the top 500 by market cap) is as follows: MOODENG, #GOAT , #Pnut , PI, and #WIF have relatively high increases. This week, we can continue to prioritize trading opportunities for strong coins.
3. Bitcoin spot ETF capital dynamics.
CoinAnk data shows that last week, the total net inflow of the Bitcoin ETF market reached $920.9 million. Among them, BlackRock (IBIT) had the highest net inflow, reaching $1.0303 billion; Fidelity (FBTC) and Ark (ARKB) had net inflows of $62.4 million and $45.6 million, respectively; Grayscale (GBTC), Bitwise (BITB), Franklin (EZBC), and VanEck (HODL) had net outflows of $171.5 million, $26.8 million, $11 million, and $8.1 million, respectively.
Last week, the total net outflow of the Ethereum ETF market reached $38.2 million. Among them, BlackRock (ETHA) saw a net outflow of $4.2 million; Fidelity (FETH) saw a net outflow of $37.2 million; Grayscale Mini (ETH) saw a net inflow of $3.2 million.
We believe that last week the cryptocurrency ETF market showed significant structural differentiation. The Bitcoin spot ETF overall maintained a net inflow of $920.9 million, but there were significant differences among institutions: BlackRock IBIT attracted $1.03 billion in a single week, continuing its leading position in the industry, while Grayscale GBTC faced a net outflow of $171.5 million, which may be related to the 1.5% high management fee causing funds to migrate to lower-cost products. Notably, despite Fidelity FBTC showing multiple instances of weekly outflows in historical data, it still achieved a net inflow of $62.4 million this time, reflecting a dynamic adjustment in institutional investors' trust in leading issuers.
In contrast, the overall net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $38.2 million, indicating a cautious short-term attitude towards ETH assets in the market. BlackRock ETHA and Fidelity FETH had outflows of $4.2 million and $37.2 million, respectively, which may stem from regulatory uncertainties regarding Ethereum ETF approvals, while Grayscale Mini ETH products saw a counter-cyclical inflow of $3.2 million, suggesting that some funds are seeking arbitrage opportunities at a discount. This differentiation indicates that investors are more inclined to anchor the narrative of Bitcoin as 'digital gold' in crypto asset allocation, while their risk preference for smart contract platform tokens is relatively conservative.
In-depth observation shows that the capital flow of Bitcoin ETFs is highly correlated with market cycles. For example, when macro risk aversion sentiment rises, BlackRock IBIT has repeatedly become the only product maintaining net inflows, highlighting its core position as an institutional allocation channel. The continued weakness of Ethereum ETFs may reflect long-term concerns in the market regarding the liquidity of POS mechanism assets and regulatory classification, and attention should be paid to the catalytic effect of SEC policy direction on capital sentiment.
4. BTC liquidation map data.
CoinAnk liquidation map data shows that if BTC breaks through $108,880, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $2.693 billion. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below $92,000, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $15 billion.
We believe that the current Bitcoin market presents significant long-short game risk near key price thresholds ($108,880 and $92,000). Liquidation data reflects the correlation between the concentrated distribution of market leverage positions and liquidity risks.
Specifically, when Bitcoin breaks through key resistance levels (such as $108,880), a large number of short stop-loss orders are triggered, creating a 'short squeeze' effect. This process may trigger a wave of liquidity, accelerating price increases and attracting chasing funds, creating a positive feedback loop. Conversely, if the price falls below support levels (such as $92,000), the concentrated liquidation of long leverage positions will exacerbate selling pressure, further lowering prices and potentially triggering panic selling. It is worth noting that the 'intensity' in the liquidation map is not an absolute value but reflects the relative importance of different price level liquidation clusters on the market's impact, with higher liquidation bars indicating a more intense market reaction when prices reach that area.
Current data highlights two risk characteristics: first, both long and short positions are highly concentrated near key thresholds, leading to extreme divergence in market sentiment; second, the liquidation intensity of long positions is far higher than that of shorts, indicating that if prices decline, the cascading shocks that the market may endure could be more severe. This pattern warns investors to be cautious of liquidity exhaustion risks in high volatility scenarios and to monitor the market sentiment transmission path after price breaks through key thresholds. For trading strategies, it is necessary to dynamically assess the potential price inertia triggered by liquidation based on position distribution and strengthen risk management to respond to extreme fluctuations.
5. This week's key macro events and highlights from the crypto market forecasts and interpretations.
CoinAnk data shows that this week's key macro events and crypto market highlights are as follows:
May 12: #TRUMP Dinner qualification ranking will be locked;
The U.S. SEC announced that it will hold the fourth crypto roundtable, with the SEC chairman and Nasdaq attending;
May 13: The U.S. will announce April CPI data at 8:30 PM on May 13;
May 14: Vaulta: EOS tokens are proposed to be exchanged for A tokens at a 1:1 exchange rate;
May 15: Obol will TGE;
May 16: Galaxy plans to list on Nasdaq;
May 17: Terra: The deadline for submitting loss claims to the Terraform liquidation trust fund is May 17;
Others (specific time not yet determined): The U.S. Treasury will hold multiple roundtable discussions on the crypto industry this week.
This week, the crypto market faces the intertwined effects of multiple macro and industry events. First, the SEC's fourth crypto roundtable on May 12 will focus on 'asset tokenization', with deep participation from traditional financial institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity potentially driving the refinement of regulatory frameworks, but it may also strengthen compliance constraints in the DeFi sector, leading to short-term market concerns over policy uncertainty. Secondly, if the U.S. April CPI data released on May 13 continues the cooling trend of March, it may solidify market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, enhancing the attractiveness of risk assets; however, if the data rebounds beyond expectations, it may put pressure on the crypto market in sync with U.S. stocks.
On the industry level, while the EOS token swap for A tokens (May 14) may trigger short-term price volatility, Vaulta's token economics design implies inflation traps and potential selling pressure, which could weaken investor confidence in the long term. Meanwhile, Galaxy's listing on Nasdaq (May 16) signifies traditional capital's recognition of crypto infrastructure, which may uplift market sentiment. Additionally, the binding of Trump dinner qualifications with TRUMP tokens indicates political forces' outreach to the crypto community, which could push the industry's regulatory stance towards a more lenient direction.
In summary, the interplay of regulatory dynamics and economic data will become the dominant factor this week. If CPI data is moderate and the SEC meeting releases positive signals, the crypto market may continue its recent upward trend; however, structural risks from events such as the EOS exchange still need to be monitored, as market volatility may further amplify.
