Macroeconomic interpretation: Amid multiple variables intertwining, including rising expectations for a shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy, the implementation of the US-UK tariff agreement, and the EU's strengthening of crypto asset regulation, the price recently broke through the key level of $104,000, with its market cap share climbing to 64.5%, reaching the highest level since the DeFi boom in 2021. This phenomenon not only reflects institutional capital's preference for safe-haven assets but also reveals the deep influence of the global macro situation on the crypto market.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut game and the rebalancing of capital flows. According to the latest data from CME's 'FedWatch', the market's expectation probability for maintaining interest rates in June is as high as 83.5%, but the probability of a 25 basis point cut in July has risen to 60.1%. This 'short stability, long easing' policy expectation is reshaping capital allocation logic: since Bitcoin broke through $85,450 on April 11, its price has risen by 16% alongside accelerated ETF inflows. Notably, data shows that in the past four weeks, there has been a capital outflow of $24.8 billion from the US stock market, marking a two-year high, with some funds likely migrating to crypto assets.
The geopolitical ripples of the US-UK tariff agreement: Although the newly reached trade agreement between the US and UK does not directly involve cryptocurrencies, its adjustments to the global trade landscape still have indirect effects. The core contents of the agreement include: the elimination of tariffs on steel and aluminum products exported from the UK to the US, the reduction of automobile tariffs from 27.5% to 10%, and zero tariffs within agricultural product quotas, while the UK expands agricultural imports from the US. Paul Dales, an economist at Capital Economics, points out that this agreement has limited short-term stimulus for the UK economy but may accelerate the return of US dollar liquidity—by lowering tariffs on industrial goods in exchange for agricultural export expansion, this 'manufacturing return + agricultural output' combination strategy could strengthen the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets. For the crypto market, the adjustment in traditional asset allocation may trigger a secondary diversion of safe-haven funds, highlighting Bitcoin's reserve properties as 'digital gold'.
Market differentiation under regulatory storm: the EU's new anti-money laundering regulations require crypto service providers to record the data of fund senders and receivers, marking the formal extension of regulatory reach into the on-chain transaction domain. Eurogroup President Donohoe emphasized that applying traditional financial regulatory frameworks to the transfer of crypto assets is 'a key step towards achieving transparency'. Tightening policies have triggered structural adjustments in the market: the recently launched holding ranking mechanism for TRUMP tokens has led to an increase in the concentration of whale accounts, with the top 220 addresses needing to hold at least 5,140 tokens to qualify for offline activities, which objectively exacerbates the risk of chip concentration. Meanwhile, the altcoin market remains sluggish, with social media discussion heat declining by over 40% compared to December last year, and the trend of capital increasingly concentrating on Bitcoin is becoming more evident.
Evolution of the derivatives market and institutional strategies: The current crypto derivatives market is exhibiting a delicate balance: the funding rates for Bitcoin contracts on CEX platforms have returned to neutral (0.01% across the three major platforms), indicating a temporary equilibrium between long and short forces. However, liquidation data shows that if prices fall to $98,296, the scale of long position liquidations will reach $3.487 billion, and this 'cliff-like' risk exposure forces institutions to adjust their hedging strategies. The US stock market has already shown a linkage effect—crypto-related stocks like Canaan Creative and MicroStrategy have seen single-day gains of over 5%, while Robinhood's stock price rose 8% due to a surge in crypto trading volume. Traditional financial institutions are constructing a 'long BTC + hedge against altcoin risk' combination strategy through derivatives tools.
The current crypto market is at a historical turning point: liquidity expectations triggered by the Federal Reserve's policy shift, capital flows reshaped by geopolitical trade agreements, and rising compliance costs due to improved regulatory frameworks collectively constitute the core variables influencing BTC prices. For investors, in the context of Bitcoin's market cap share continuing to rise, attention to CME interest rate futures trends, the implementation progress of the US-UK agreement, and the enforcement strength of EU regulations will become key anchors for predicting market trends. The recovery of the altcoin market may depend on whether a new value narrative can be formed after regulatory frameworks become clear.
BTC data analysis:
Coinank data shows that BTC has risen to over $104,000, triggering a large number of contract liquidations. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network reached $921 million, with long positions liquidating $234 million and short positions liquidating $687 million. Among them, Bitcoin liquidations amounted to $279 million, and Ethereum liquidations reached $328 million.
In the past 24 hours, short positions accounted for 83.8% of total liquidations across the network, exposing the extreme vulnerability of the market's leverage structure. This wave of liquidations originates from three mechanisms: policy expectations and market sentiment resonance: the easing of tariff negotiations between the US and various countries, along with the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on pausing interest rate cuts, has strengthened Bitcoin's narrative as an 'anti-inflation asset', attracting institutional funds through ETFs; the imbalance in the derivatives market: Bitcoin futures open interest has reached a historical peak of $12 billion, while funding rates remain low (0.01%), indicating that market makers are suppressing volatility through Delta hedging, leading to increased liquidation pressure when prices break through key levels; liquidity layering effect: exchange BTC reserves have fallen to 2018 lows, with insufficient market depth amplifying volatility, and around $1.17 billion in short liquidation thresholds concentrated near the $100,000 mark, forming a self-reinforcing upward spiral.
Short-term volatility intensifies: buying pressure resulting from short liquidations may push prices to test the $120,000 resistance level, but the depletion of exchange reserves (2.49 million BTC) could lead to a risk of more than 5% single-day drawdown.
Deepening institutionalization process: Major asset management giants like BlackRock increased their holdings by over 50,000 BTC in a single week, raising the average cost basis to $83,000, forming a new price support level.
Altcoin liquidity squeeze: Bitcoin's market cap share has rebounded to 65%, with capital concentrating on top assets, while mid- and small-cap tokens may face more severe selling pressure. However, the 14.6% rebound in the ETH/BTC exchange rate indicates possible local capital rotation.
The current market is at a critical juncture of transitioning from 'policy-driven' to 'technical breakthrough'. Attention should be paid to the sudden changes in liquidity expectations after the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, as well as the potential black swan shocks in a high-leverage derivatives environment.
