The easing of trade tensions will directly benefit multinational companies and export-oriented industries, with the S&P 500 and Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 likely to see a phase of rebound. If the joint statement involves tariff reductions, expectations for energy and industrial metal demand will rise, and prices may increase by 3%-5%; agricultural products may circulate more rapidly due to the complementary trade between China and the U.S., with CBOT soybean futures potentially breaking through 1300 cents/bushel. The yuan may appreciate against the dollar to below 7.0 in the short term, but caution is needed regarding the reverse pressure from delayed expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Companies may slow down the process of 'de-China-ization,' bringing some production capacity back to cost-effective regions in central and western China or Southeast Asia, while the substitution effect from Vietnam and Mexico diminishes. If the statement includes the relaxation of technology export controls, cooperation in the semiconductor equipment and AI chip sectors is expected to partially resume, but core areas remain restricted by the U.S. CHIPS Act.

The progress in this negotiation marks a shift from 'confrontation dominance' to 'limited cooperation' between the U.S. and China, but the core contradictions have not been fundamentally resolved. If the joint statement includes verifiable tariff reductions and procurement plans, it will boost risk assets in the short term, while the effectiveness of the new negotiation mechanism will determine the medium- to long-term stability of trade. Investors should focus on export chains benefiting from tariff reductions and the logistics sector improving supply chain efficiency, while remaining vigilant about geopolitical black swan events (Taiwan Strait, South China Sea) that may have a pulse-like impact on the market. The real turning point may come after the U.S. government transition in 2025, when it will be necessary to reassess the risks of policy continuity.