The current decline of Bitcoin's dominance (BTCD) at 84,763,490,408 and the rise of mainstream altcoins have indeed sparked speculation about an altcoin season. Currently, BTCD is about 54.3%; if it continues to drop below 50%, it will be a clear signal for the start of the altcoin season. Historical data shows that altcoin seasons in 2017 and 2021 occurred after BTCD fell below 50%. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has risen above 0.05, and the exchange rates of other mainstream tokens like SOL/BTC have also increased, indicating that funds are starting to lean towards altcoins. The number of wallet addresses holding projects like Cardano and Polkadot has increased by 15%, suggesting that retail investors are starting to accumulate assets. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have been pushed to Q3 2025, and in a high-interest-rate environment, risk assets remain under pressure, which may suppress the explosion of altcoins. Institutional funds continue to flow into Bitcoin through ETFs, and if BTC breaks through $100,000, it may further delay the arrival of the altcoin season. The Fear and Greed Index remains in a neutral range, not reaching 'euphoria' levels, and investor confidence in altcoins has not fully recovered.

The current market is in the brewing stage before the altcoin season, with capital flow showing a shift from BTC to leading projects like ETH and SOL, but a full explosion requires waiting for BTCD to fall below 50% and improvements in macro liquidity. Priority should be given to positioning in tokens with high liquidity and strong fundamentals, participating moderately in meme coin fluctuations, and retaining cash to respond to potential pullbacks. If the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts materialize in the second half of 2025, altcoins may welcome a phase of climax.