Based on current market dynamics and on-chain data, Ethereum (ETH) presents a complex pattern of bullish and bearish struggles after breaking through $2500. The $2500 mark is a critical watershed. There is significant selling pressure near $2500, coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the March 2025 peak to the April low, and it is necessary to observe whether it can stabilize in this range. If there is a pullback, $2400 and $2200 are key support areas. Recently, the scale of short liquidations has been significant, driving the price up quickly, but the perpetual contract funding rate has risen to 0.15%, indicating that leveraged long positions are overheated, and caution is needed for potential pullback risks. The options market's 25% delta skew remains in a neutral to bearish range, indicating that professional traders are cautious about the breakout.

ETH is currently at the intersection of technical breakthroughs and macro favorable conditions. In the short term, it needs to break through the $2500 resistance to confirm the bullish trend, while in the medium term, it relies on ETF funds and ecological innovations. If the Federal Reserve implements interest rate cuts in Q3 2025, ETH may usher in a 'super cycle,' aiming for a target of $5000.