BTC rallies to Over $105K with market optimism rising ahead of CPI release and easing global trade tensions
Bitcoin (BTC) is inching closer to a new all-time high, currently trading around $105,600, as traders react to a breakthrough U.S.–China trade deal and anticipate a softening April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. These macroeconomic developments, alongside consistent ETF inflows and stable market volatility, are setting the stage for a potential rally above $109,350.
Key Drivers Behind the Bitcoin Surge:
U.S.–China trade agreement signed in Geneva reduces inflationary risk
April CPI expected to cool to 2.3%, strengthening Fed rate cut bets
Bitcoin spot ETFs, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, continue strong inflows
BTC up 10% last week, surging from April lows of $75,000
Altcoins like ETH, DOGE, ADA, and SOL show double-digit gains
U.S.–China Trade Deal Calms Inflation Fears
After weeks of escalating tariffs, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced a formal trade agreement with China on Sunday following Geneva-based negotiations. A joint statement outlining the terms is expected Monday.
This resolution ends a tit-for-tat trade war that raised tariffs above 100% and threatened to spike global inflation. The agreement restores stability and reduces forward-looking inflation concerns that had previously muted the impact of March's favorable CPI data.
CPI Report Could Unlock Fresh BTC Highs
The April CPI report, scheduled for Tuesday, is expected to show a year-over-year decrease to 2.3%, down from 2.4% in March, according to RBC. Core CPI is forecast to hold steady at 2.8%.
“If this expectation holds, the market may view the inflation report as positive. CPI could be bullish and may bring new all-time highs,”
said Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, in a note to CoinDesk.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Maintain Momentum
BlackRock’s IBIT ETF has recorded 20 consecutive days of net inflows, surpassing $5 billion in assets under management, according to SoSoValue. This steady institutional interest has been a major catalyst in Bitcoin’s near V-shaped recovery from $75,000 to over $104,000 in just over a month.
Market Conditions Suggest More Room to Rally
According to HTX Research:
Implied volatility (IV) in Bitcoin options remains low at 50–55%, well below the 80%+ peaks of past bubbles
CME Bitcoin futures open interest stands at $14.8 billion, still below the 2020 peak of $20B
Leverage is moderate, and ETF demand remains consistent
As long as yields stay below 4.8%, Bitcoin is expected to consolidate in the $105K–$115K range, with a breakout likely if CPI cools or additional catalysts emerge.
Altcoins Join the Rally
The bullish momentum isn’t limited to Bitcoin:
Ether (ETH) surged 39% to $2,500, its best weekly gain since December 2020
DOGE rose 56%, while ADA and SOL jumped 19% and 20%, respectively
XRP also posted strong gains amid broader market optimism
Notably, analysts see no signs of speculative frenzy, suggesting the rally could sustain without immediate correction risks.
