1. Current situation
- Price: $103,623.30 (+4.43%)
- Marking price: $103,619.9 (minimum gap from the last price)
- 24h range: $99,104.0 – $104,373.0
- Volumes:
- 289,924.534 BTC
- $29.59 billion USDT (high liquidity)
2. Key indicators
- MACD:
- DIF (876.2) < DEA (1,012.1) → bearish signal (but the difference is small).
- MACD histogram: -136.0 (confirms weak downward momentum).
- RSI(6): 66.5 → close to overbought (70+). Correction possible.
- Support/Resistance:
- Support: $99,772.7 (previous low), $98,113.6 (strong level).
- Resistance: $104,373.0 (max 24h), $101,431.8 (local level).
3. Trading plan
Scenario 1: Correction (70%)
- If the price tests $104,373.0 and bounces down (RSI confirmation >70 + bearish MACD):
- Short with TP at $101,431.8 or $99,772.7.
- SL above $104,500.0.
Scenario 2: Breakout upward (30%)
- If the volume increases and the price consolidates above $104,500.0:
- Long with TP at $106,000.0 (psychological level).
- SL below $103,000.0.
Scenario 3: Consolidation
- If the price fluctuates in the range of $103,000–$104,000:
- Trade from the boundaries (scalping).
4. Risk management
- Do not risk more than 2% of capital per trade.
- Consider high volatility (news, macroeconomics).
5. Additional factors
- Time: Asia/Europe - corrections possible, USA - trend strengthening.
- Monitor the volumes: a sharp increase - a signal to act.
Conclusion: The main scenario is a correction after the rise. Prepare for a short at resistance, but be ready for a breakout with strong volume.
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