In the practice of investing in financial markets, rather than being obsessed with accurately predicting macro trends and the overall market movement, it is better to establish a 'fuzzy correct' decision-making framework.
The market is full of uncertainties, and the predictions of any individual or institution should not serve as the absolute basis for decision-making.
Macroeconomic analysis and technical analysis do have their value; they are important tools for constructing a 'fuzzy correct' understanding. By analyzing the patterns of economic cycles and interpreting technical indicator signals, investors can grasp the underlying logic of market operations.
However, regardless of the analysis method used, it is impossible to accurately foresee the specific market conditions of tomorrow, next week, or even next month.
Only by accepting the unpredictability of the market and guiding investment behavior with probabilistic thinking can one steadily progress amidst volatility.
