In the financial market, rather than being obsessed with accurately predicting macro trends and market direction, it is better to focus on building a "fuzzy correct" decision-making framework. The market is constantly changing, and investors should avoid relying on the predictive conclusions of any individual or institution, always maintaining independent judgment.
Macroeconomic analysis and technical analysis are not without value; they are important tools for establishing a "fuzzy correct" understanding. By understanding macroeconomic cycles, changes in market sentiment, and technical indicator signals, investors can grasp the fundamental laws of market operation.
However, no analysis method can provide certainty about tomorrow's, next week's, or next month's market trends.
The uncertainty of the market always exists; only by accepting this uncertainty and guiding investment decisions with probabilistic thinking can one move steadily forward in a complex and ever-changing environment.
