Missing out, being liquidated, making money, which feeling is the worst?
When losing 10%, there is a brief pain; when gaining 10%, there is a brief joy. However, missing out is a more subtle pain—seeing others make money while you did not participate.
You might think that if you had held a position, you would definitely have earned that portion of profit.
Therefore, missing out often makes people feel like they have missed an opportunity, as if it were a kind of "loss."
But unlike holding a losing position, missing out does not mean that your abilities are lacking. It simply indicates that you did not participate in a certain opportunity, which does not imply that your skills are inadequate.
Rather than saying missing out is a failure, it might be better understood as merely missing an opportunity.
The continuous downward trend of Ethereum on the daily chart doesn't make me anxious.
Even if Bitcoin drops sharply, increasing the risk of sideways decline, I remain calm.
A few days ago, Puh said that many good things will happen in the next month, and today, Sun said that many big players are entering the market. I’m genuinely a bit worried with my full position in spot.
These two are teaming up to stir things up, and based on past experiences with significant drops, something not so good is definitely going to happen.
With the continuous emergence of launch platforms, almost anyone can easily become a "dog dealer," and the cost is very low.
The speed of token issuance is as rapid as a rocket, but the influx of new users is steadily slowing down, with most of the large funds entering the market concentrating on Bitcoin.
As the number of new players decreases and the funds of old users gradually shrink, it becomes increasingly difficult to see a widespread rally in altcoins like in the past.
Future opportunities may become more localized, with segments like inscriptions and on-chain meme coins possibly presenting short-term opportunities, but their duration is limited; a slight delay in response could lead to missed chances.
Perhaps the trend for the future development of the cryptocurrency market will be Bitcoin + other assets + a fast-paced model. Bitcoin will continue to maintain a strong position, while other coins will become localized opportunities. The pace of the cryptocurrency market will become increasingly rapid, and if one cannot adapt to this change, the only choice will be to concentrate funds in Bitcoin.
Altcoin Spot Trading Volume Has Yet to Exceed $10 Billion
According to CryptoQuant data, the current spot trading volume of altcoins remains sluggish, with an average daily trading volume of only $3 billion to $5 billion, while in the fourth quarter of 2024, this figure was as high as $8 billion to $12 billion. This indicates that altcoins may be in the early stages of a rebound. Despite the low trading volume, market analysts generally believe that this situation could be a precursor to a strong rebound for altcoins, suggesting that they have not yet reached the peak of growth.
Data from Blockchaincenter.net shows that the current altcoin season index is 24, further confirming that the market is still in a Bitcoin-dominated period. Historically, an index below 25 typically means Bitcoin dominates the market, but this is not necessarily bad news for altcoins. When the index rises above 30 to 40, altcoins usually experience significant increases, primarily because funds flow from Bitcoin into altcoins.
As trading volume shows signs of recovery and the altcoin season index points to an impending market shift, investor expectations for an altcoin rebound are becoming increasingly optimistic.
After experiencing such a hellish trend, both the market's speculation sentiment and the K-line patterns clearly need some time to recover.
To be honest, this morning I still thought a V-shaped intraday rebound was impossible, but it actually happened, and it was like the V-shaped reversal when Bitcoin broke new highs... it's really a bit ridiculous, the market is truly difficult to navigate. My hedging has made me start to question life, let alone engage in subjective trading.
In this market, is there really such a thing as a 'trading god'?
ETH has risen slightly, and ETH MEME has started to soar, which is the advantage of having no excessive competition, no excessive speculation, and a strong community foundation.
The Ethereum chain is most suitable for ordinary retail investors to make money; the key is your ability to persevere; only by persevering can you see significant returns!
Stay steady and see the shape; there is currently a faint downward trend.
In this situation, do not rashly chase highs within this range. You can choose not to short, but also do not go long at this time. If U.S. stocks plummet tonight, it may bring the 5000-point pullback you want.
To be honest, my BTC short position is still held.
If you plan to participate in wild speculation coins like Alpaca, here are some key points you need to understand:
Strong control by the operators: The operators of these projects often have strong confidence in their market control, and they can maintain their operations by precisely controlling market sentiment and capital flow.
Profit sources for the operators: The way operators make money is usually through the normal psychological reactions of retail investors. The buying and selling behavior of retail investors provides opportunities for operators to profit, while operators achieve profits by manipulating market fluctuations.
Strategy of false dips: Wild speculation often involves creating false dips multiple times to attract retail investors to sell, followed by a price rebound. The real price drop usually occurs when retail investors have already been shaken out or lost confidence, and only after those 'disheartened' retail investors leave does the operator achieve the final drop.
Information asymmetry: In such projects, investors are often at a disadvantage due to information asymmetry. Due to market fluctuations and the secretive operations of the operators, external investors find it difficult to fully understand the true intentions of the operators. Blindly following the crowd may carry significant risks, so not participating may be a wiser choice.
Understanding operator intentions and contrarian psychology: If you decide to participate in such projects, you must deeply understand the operators' operational intentions and cultivate contrarian thinking. Operators will manipulate market sentiment, so you need to have strong psychological resilience and accept the possibility of multiple trial-and-error experiences.
Summary: If you want to survive in this highly manipulated market, you must remain calm, analyze rationally, understand how the operators you face operate, and be prepared to bear risks.
Mikami has begun, and it's uncertain what the outcome will be, but I still recommend participating with a small amount of funds. Personally, I feel that BN Alpha may not launch, and the situation for such coins is not very optimistic.
You must carefully understand the rules and be mentally prepared for a complete loss. If you participate, be sure to remain cautious, as projects on the blockchain can be difficult to control in terms of risk.
Will there be a large liquidation in the next two days?
Based on historical data, a large liquidation occurs approximately every 13 days, with the typical liquidation amount ranging from 800 million to 2 billion USD.
The most recent liquidation occurred on April 7, and today is April 30, meaning there have been 23 days without significant fluctuations. Whether a new large liquidation will occur is worth paying attention to.
Be cautious of risks, as while the market often changes, some patterns remain constant: such as human greed and the instinct to chase gains and cut losses, as well as the harvesting strategies commonly used by market makers.
Before the holidays, all messages will only limit your thoughts on capturing fluctuations.
I understand that many people are currently fighting against the bulls, and I know that many have been bearish from the start, and I myself also hold a bearish stance.
At different stages, different trading strategies should be adopted. We all know that the price has impacted 96000 multiple times but has never been able to break through...
Bear markets usually have rebounds, and news and sentiment may fluctuate in the short term, but since the overall market data has not fundamentally changed, the market will ultimately continue to decline.
Avoid participating in low-quality projects or small wallet assets in the third and fourth tiers, as these assets have poor repayment capabilities and are prone to significant risks during bear markets.
In every bear market, there will be events where stablecoins become unpegged. Some stablecoins can quickly recover after rumors are debunked, while others may never recover.
Not all coins supported by venture capital (VC) will decline; there are usually a few strong coins that rise against the trend in the market until a significant correction occurs.
If you don't rush to operate frequently during a bear market and instead focus on consumption and observing the recovery of major trends before joining at the right time, you can not only preserve your principal but also outperform over 95% of market participants.
The current market sentiment is highly volatile, prices rise quickly and fall just as fast, and in the blink of an eye, millions in funds flood in, but the ceiling for most projects is already very close.
In the second phase of the market, attention concentration is low, there are few players, and liquidity is mostly controlled by experts, with ordinary investors having almost no liquidity.
Experts rely on early information, precise analysis of major players, and chip control, while we can only stare at our phones, finding it difficult to obtain enough timely information; apart from understanding the overall trend, other analyses seem inadequate.
Therefore, I plan to change my strategy, focus on learning online analysis, concentrate on the early market, and no longer be obsessed with the short-term fluctuations of the second phase market.
I really want to give this market a big slap! If it's going to change, just change it, dragging it out like this is just a way to cut both ends of the leek, right?
The market manipulators are really cunning. In the past few days, the market has not been completely synchronized with the U.S. stock market anymore; when the U.S. market drops, they pretend to drop, but during the day they pull it back up, making you mistakenly think that "it's not falling anymore, it's going to reverse."
But the more it is like this, the more you need to stay calm. When it's time to act, be quick, accurate, and ruthless; when it's not time to move, just treat it like watching a show.
The current macro environment has emerged from the most difficult phase, and market confidence is gradually recovering. Once the market adjustment ends, the trend is expected to shift from a rebound phase to a reversal.
If there is no interest rate cut in May, the probability of a rate cut in June will significantly increase. At that time, combined with the progress of tariff negotiations and other policies, the market is likely to rebound rapidly. Therefore, the entire month of May will be a good opportunity for positioning at lower levels.