I looked at the comparison between last year's trend and this year's trend for $BTC . After Trump officially took office, the fluctuations in the market have been too large and too frequent, making it indeed more difficult to grasp the market than last year.
If we emerge from a super large angle monthly cycle upward trend, then we will experience a week of consolidation instead of a decline, with the bottom at 100,000 points. After previous capital fluctuations, there will be a sell-off, and the bottom could be at 95,000. As for the 91,000 and 89,000 points, we cannot rule out the possibility of reaching those levels.
Adding to this, the United States has delayed tariffs on Europe for 90 days, which means it will be implemented on July 8. Regardless of whether it will take effect at that time, it will at least create panic and increase the likelihood of selling.
I expect a bull market in June to July, but whether the European tariffs will take effect on July 8 is also a ticking time bomb.
In any case, from the weekly MACD perspective, on April 9 (74,400 points), it formed a zero crossing, indicating that a wave of bullishness is approaching. However, the trading volume has been decreasing, and at least over the next week, there will be a bearish bar (the market needs to correct), which is what I mean by a dent before the MACD golden cross. Unfortunately, the market came a bit late. By the end of May or early June, a wave of bull market budding (bull head) should begin, and on June 19, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced, which will likely boost the market. In July, the bull tail will appear, and the market will decline and consolidate.
In summary: The market is nailed down and any moment there could be a wave of correction, and this correction will confirm the starting point for the rise in May. The probability of replacing the decline with consolidation at 100,000 points is low; the bears will be harvested, and the bulls will take over, so the market will likely still correct to around 95,000 points. As for 91,000 and 89,000, unless there is a sharp drop followed by a quick recovery, the probability of reaching 91,000 can be ruled out. Capital will not go back to low positions to pick up retail investors at this stage.
So for those who haven't entered the spot market, just wait for a big correction to get in. As for contracts, it purely relies on the 'Short Probe Method' to take advantage of the swings, which is absolutely tricky. However, I still have to remind newcomers who cannot grasp contract swings that they should wait for a big correction to buy the dip, just like in the spot market.
