加密伏羲

$ETH Today, when the increase exceeded 17%, SOL was only 12%. As long as Bitcoin holds at 104,000 to stabilize the fluctuations, ETH is bound to pull back a lot, and sure enough, it did. However, I don't like it very much. I play BTC and SOL contracts and don't want to touch ETH, not sure why, maybe it's because Vitalik isn't as handsome as me. 😂#本周高光时刻

The top formation has shown a wave high pressure trend, but the low level of 102100 has not yet been successfully broken. As long as it breaks 102100 and holds, the next market will go to 100,000. Whether it can reach 95,000 will depend on the upcoming indicator changes.

Pay attention to the point of 102100. Of course, we also need to consider the fluctuation from April 23 to May 6, which took 13 days in the 92800-97700 range, now appearing at the current high level. Therefore, 102100 is a strong support and also a historical support level near 102500.

It's that time again when everyone is tortured by the market. Last night, I entered a short position using the 'Short Probe Method' twice, but unfortunately, the market did not drop much, resulting in a stop-loss being hit, and I exited at break-even.

However, I personally still tend to be bearish. If you can stay up all night, keep an eye on the market. 😂😂😂#本周高光时刻

$BTC Contract Trading Strategy: "Short Exploration Method"
On the day the Federal Reserve announced the interest rates, why did I short at 97200, and set my stop loss at 97100 when the market was at 96800? I was bearish all the way, and even though the market dropped to 95700 and started to fluctuate, I couldn’t hold on and went to sleep, resulting in a market reversal half an hour later. But it had no impact on my principal at all.

From the entry to the end, I used the "Short Exploration Method" to analyze the entry points. The highest point at 97490 did not create an entry opportunity; only the range from 97300 to 97200 formed one. Therefore, the "Short Exploration Method" is very accurate and effective in controlling entry points.

Second: Set the stop loss at the profit point, and observe the trend with the profits. Because the "Short Exploration Method" generates profit at the entry, it is reasonable to set the stop loss at the profit point and watch the decline with the profits.

Third: This is about capturing fluctuations and exploring long-term trends. Capturing fluctuations, 95700 is already a 30-minute EMA double track support point. The choice is whether to capture fluctuations and leave with a profit of 1400 points, or continue to explore the decline. It all depends on your satisfaction with the earnings at that moment. If satisfied, exit; if not, continue to monitor the market. As long as the "Short Exploration Method" establishes an upward trend, you must exit the short position and switch to long.

However, I did not care. After Powell finished speaking, I went straight to sleep. The market began to change at 4 o'clock. I checked the indicators, and an opportunity to go long based on the "Short Exploration Method" had formed. It's a bit unfortunate, but I just returned the 1400 points of profit to the market while my principal remained stable, not a cent less.

Contracts are different from spot trading; if you make a mistake in spot trading, you can wait, but contracts are inherently about leveraging small amounts for large gains, facing the risk of liquidation. Therefore, the "Short Exploration Method" is the best choice for contracts. I personally use the "Short Exploration Method" for my contract trading.

#btc走勢

After waking up, I found that I had climbed to 104200, it's really interesting. The remarks from Powell and the interest rate data really aren't as effective as Trump's remarks, this year Trump's statements have caused significant market fluctuations.

What can be confirmed is that I didn't capture the 8200 points from 96000 to 104200, whether in spot or contracts. There's nothing to regret, nobody is perfect, and life always has some regrets. After all, I saw 78400 reach 84500 and 95000. In this wave of increase, I also benefitted.

However, I still firmly believe there will be a wave of selling, seeing 95000. Until this position is reached, I won't move the spot that I've missed. This post is proof.

#btc走勢

I looked at the comparison between last year's trend and this year's trend for $BTC . After Trump officially took office, the fluctuations in the market have been too large and too frequent, making it indeed more difficult to grasp the market than last year.

If we emerge from a super large angle monthly cycle upward trend, then we will experience a week of consolidation instead of a decline, with the bottom at 100,000 points. After previous capital fluctuations, there will be a sell-off, and the bottom could be at 95,000. As for the 91,000 and 89,000 points, we cannot rule out the possibility of reaching those levels.

Adding to this, the United States has delayed tariffs on Europe for 90 days, which means it will be implemented on July 8. Regardless of whether it will take effect at that time, it will at least create panic and increase the likelihood of selling.

I expect a bull market in June to July, but whether the European tariffs will take effect on July 8 is also a ticking time bomb.

In any case, from the weekly MACD perspective, on April 9 (74,400 points), it formed a zero crossing, indicating that a wave of bullishness is approaching. However, the trading volume has been decreasing, and at least over the next week, there will be a bearish bar (the market needs to correct), which is what I mean by a dent before the MACD golden cross. Unfortunately, the market came a bit late. By the end of May or early June, a wave of bull market budding (bull head) should begin, and on June 19, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced, which will likely boost the market. In July, the bull tail will appear, and the market will decline and consolidate.

In summary: The market is nailed down and any moment there could be a wave of correction, and this correction will confirm the starting point for the rise in May. The probability of replacing the decline with consolidation at 100,000 points is low; the bears will be harvested, and the bulls will take over, so the market will likely still correct to around 95,000 points. As for 91,000 and 89,000, unless there is a sharp drop followed by a quick recovery, the probability of reaching 91,000 can be ruled out. Capital will not go back to low positions to pick up retail investors at this stage.

So for those who haven't entered the spot market, just wait for a big correction to get in. As for contracts, it purely relies on the 'Short Probe Method' to take advantage of the swings, which is absolutely tricky. However, I still have to remind newcomers who cannot grasp contract swings that they should wait for a big correction to buy the dip, just like in the spot market.
#btc走勢

#牛市布局

In fact, since early April, there has been a trend of fluctuating upward movement, and the weekly MACD has reached near zero, just like early September last year. The entire trend is in a fluctuating upward movement, and entering the spot market is definitely perfect. But everyone knows that a bull market will not appear too early. Therefore, the idea of extending the timeline, including mine, is rejected. Considering that last year, on November 5th, before the bull market, it followed a monthly cycle of fluctuating upward movement, the strategy of focusing on capturing waves in the spot market is the approach before the bull market.

I remember on April 10th, when it hit 78,400, I left after reaching 84,500. On April 19th, Saturday, I recall seeing it break through 86,000 and reach the fluctuating range of 89,000 to 92,800-95,000. This wave of spots was captured, including contracts. However, from 95,000 to the current 101,700, I didn’t capture that. From the overall market and news perspective, it is evident that there will be fluctuations and adjustments in early May, but I didn’t expect it to adjust to last night’s 95,700.

From my personal analysis of the market and some information, due to the huge proportion of short-selling retail investors, capital has formed a strong pull. This has caused the adjustment point in May not to be reached. However, from the trend in April, it is impossible for the market to simply go up and exit the bull. Recently, there has been a low point of adjustment appearing. This is an opportunity for entering the spot market this year.

$BTC #BTC走势分析

This old guy is stirring up the market again at night.
But I believe we won't enter a bull market at this time. I will wait for the moment of a market crash.

At 2:30 AM, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is announced, followed by Powell's speech, which is expected to last until around 3:15. I thought the market had stabilized after a decline, so I moved my stop loss into profit and went to sleep. However, when I checked in the morning, the market had changed, and the timing was around 4:00. Capital markets are quite adept; after checking the 4-hour shorts liquidating, I understood the reason. Last night's decision to keep the Fed's interest rates unchanged and some of Powell's statements led everyone to take a bearish view, resulting in this significant rally.

I stayed up late last night, only to find it was in vain. This highlights the importance of the core technique of 'Short Exploration Method': entering the market means profit, moving the stop loss into profit, and using profits to track market trends. Unfortunately, just as I lay down to sleep, the market formed a support with a 30-minute EMA double track, and the indicators reversed to bullish. I was stopped out of 1500 points in profit; I was just trying to break even. 😂😂😂

As a Chinese person engaging in cryptocurrency, especially contracts, the time difference between China and the US really takes a toll on my health. I developed a stomach ulcer last year, but fortunately, the biopsy was benign. I still advise everyone trading contracts not to stay up too late; if you can take swings, do so and then exit. If you're feeling greedy, you can set your stop loss at the profit point and take a stop win to sleep, at least using profits to monitor trends. Of course, for those who are trapped, unravelling such market conditions is also quite simple. If you have any questions, feel free to comment or consult.

#btc走勢

$BTC Market The Federal Reserve's interest rates remained unchanged last night, and Powell's remarks were neutral, but the entire market has turned bearish. The proportion of short sellers is large, and at 4 PM, 30 minutes after Powell's speech, there was a reversal surge, trapping short sellers and causing heavy losses. This market has always been like this; in the era of big data, specific contracts need to be closely monitored. Alternatively, use the 'Short Probe Method' to trade in segments, probe for long-term trends, and place stop losses within profits.

Regarding the current market situation, anyone with clear eyes can see that nearly every surge high point is about 1500 points away from the previous high. If there is to be a rally, it's capital looking for a suitable time to dump and lure in buyers to harvest the long positions.

In recent days, the market will certainly experience a wave of dumping, as the daily rise of about 1500 points makes the entire dumping space larger.

From April 23 to May 8, over 15 days, the market rose from around 93000 to 99400, just 6400 points. The facts are now clear. The market rose from 83000 to 95000 in just two days. This indicates that the majority of the market expects a bull run around June to July. Capital has no choice; coincidentally, the Federal Reserve's interest rate remains unchanged, and a surge reaches the pressure point of 99500.

At this time, the market sentiment is bullish, which is a good thing. Last night, if the spot market missed the opportunity to enter and trade in segments, then it's better to give up entering at this moment. Wait for the dumping before reconsidering. As for contracts, the same advice applies: use the 'Short Probe Method' for operations, focusing on short positions.

The initial target is 93500, then look for 90500.
#btc走勢

$BTC In 20 minutes, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced, along with Powell's subsequent speech. Based on the current indicators, analysis, news, and monthly cycle, it is highly likely that the market will crash.

#美联储利率决议即将公布

In the past few weeks, Trump has started to change his tune and recognize the capabilities of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, but he has been privately pressuring for interest rate cuts. Tomorrow at 2 AM, the Federal Reserve will announce interest rates, and there will be no rate cuts, which has raised doubts among everyone.

For those without technical support in contract trading, it's best to just observe; survival should be your primary concern.

Personally, I still lean towards the belief that there will be no interest rate cuts, because Trump is a person of many moods, and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain rates is surely based on its own considerations. The biggest market fluctuations will not be after the Federal Reserve's rate announcement, but rather during Powell's subsequent speech.

The bull market in May came too early, and the Federal Reserve would not make such a risky decision. The overall trend for BTC still points to a decline, currently unchanged at 89000-90500.

Spot traders should not be aggressive; waiting will lead to a bright future. For contracts, I can only tell you about the 'Short Exploration Method.' During the big data announcement phase, only the 'Short Exploration Method' can allow you to enter the market at the perfect point, ultimately leading to profits.

#美联储利率决议即将公布

In the past, I would post analysis for every market wave, and later I only posted analysis on the overall market trend. Now, I have stopped updating on various app software. It's only been a few days since I stopped, and this morning many came to consult, most of whom got free rides to 89000-90500. Seeing that surge this morning, they were anxious, fearing it would go to 100000. [Facepalm][Facepalm][Facepalm]

The essence of this market is just like that; there are too many sudden reversals and pullbacks. The reason you cannot catch the waves but only ride the big trend is that you cannot see the changes in indicators.

Even in a bullish market, historical trends have similar situations, like what happened on December 6 last year, when it dropped from 104000 to 90500. A drop of 13500 points, anyone who experienced last year's bull market should know. No matter how it retraced on December 5, your current big trend endpoint is around 89000, and at 90000 you need to lay out your spot trading, the contract 'Short Probe Method' clearly shows the entry point after that big drop.

The 85 Black Swan saw the big trend break from 68500 to 6 into 5 at the end of July, hitting a low of 48900. As a result, the market slightly changed and rose to 70000, then continuously oscillated down. During this time, it retraced from 62300 to 65500 and from 57300 to 59500, eventually crashing to 48900.

So, for those of you who are riding the trend for free, and for spot and contract traders wanting to catch waves, you still need to analyze the indicators yourself. This is the fundamental reason I teach techniques; those who follow me learn to analyze and flexibly apply the 'Short Probe Method' will not short at 93500, but will only go long and catch waves.

Alright, I've said so much just to tell my fans that the posts you ride for free will continue to attract more people to ride for free, and without content, you will ultimately end up at zero. Only by improving your own skills can you survive.

That’s all I have to say, I hope to be disturbed less in the future, thank you.
$BTC #btc走勢

The vast majority of retail investors believe that market trends follow macroeconomic theory, for example, negotiations between countries leading to reduced tariffs are seen as positive for the market, and an increase in non-farm employment rate indicates economic improvement. The market is bullish. Everyone rushes in to buy at high prices. Those stuck in spot positions and those facing liquidation in contracts. This is how the news misleads everyone into making wrong judgments. Sometimes it feels correct, and other times it indeed misdirects people. Do you have this feeling?

Having been in the industry for 10 years, I consider myself a seasoned player, having experienced too much from A-shares to funds to foreign exchange and then to BQ. Personally, I believe BQ is the highest risk investment area, but also a place with huge profits.

In BQ, relying solely on macroeconomic theories will lead to defeat by reality, while I personally think understanding the indicators of the BTC market is more important, with macroeconomic theories (news) serving as supplementary references.

Players who have followed me for a while have noticed that my analysis of the market trend is particularly accurate, often posting at crucial moments to save everyone. My analysis is primarily based on indicator analysis. Many people will say that indicators are fake and capital can change at will, but you are mistaken; indicators are built on the inflow and outflow of capital by retail investors and capital, reflecting the profits and losses of long and short positions over various time periods. They represent reality and accuracy. However, they are just some lines; those who do not study them are ultimately left with a useless tool.

If you want to survive in this market, having strong personal skills is the most important condition. If you do not have them, you will be like a headless fly, constantly paying attention to crypto influencers, watching their statements at all times. Do you know how many influencers in this market are pushed up by certain forces? Their existence misleads retail investors during specific periods to ultimately achieve the goal of harvesting.

Moreover, those with low technical content and who have not experienced several bull markets can come out and post, packaging themselves as analysis experts. They primarily post frequently and use group washing to lure you one by one into the abyss.

To survive in BQ, the only way is to strengthen your own skills; otherwise, returning to zero is inevitable, and luck merely affects the speed of returning to zero.

My understanding of indicators and contract strategies like 'Short Probe Method' in BTC market analysis is the main reason I can survive. Without these, I would be like you, a headless fly.
#分析行情

The main market analysis posts will be paused, and there will be a two-day break in the live stream. If there is time, the 58 Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be live-streamed again!

#btc走勢

$BTC Market analysis continues to look bearish at 89000-90500. Is this the point to buy the dip? I will provide timely analysis at that time.

As for how to analyze with indicators and the news to see bearish signals and levels, if you want to become a mature and well-rounded player, feel free to consult.
#btc走勢

$ETH Many people ask me why I post more analyses about BTC instead of some quality altcoins.

BTC is the king of the crypto world and a barometer for market trends. Those who understand technology know that the direction of quality altcoins must be further analyzed in conjunction with BTC trends. That's why I only publish analyses on BTC trends.

In the past, I posted about popular coins and analyses on quality altcoins, but as a seasoned player and a unique analysis guru, my original intention was just to teach others the technology, to help more people reduce investment mistakes and survive in the crypto world.

During the live broadcasts, as long as someone asks me a question, I patiently answer. Recently, someone asked about the trends and points of Trump, ETH, and SOL, and I responded. Over the years, I have helped many fans avoid detours and helped them recover their investments. However, there is one thing I really dislike: it’s fine if people take my posts for free, but in the live room, I don’t like people who take advantage of it and frequently occupy the precious short time of the live broadcast with questions; they should let the time be given to those who need it more.
#ETH

When did Fuxi miss the overall trend of the $BTC market?

Last night on the live chat, I emphasized again that it's like reheating leftovers, do not go long, the market will definitely crash after midnight. Continue to watch 89000-90500.

I also mentioned to a fan that you shorted at 96300, it dropped yesterday, set a stop loss at 96200, take the profit and continue to look for short opportunities, why rush to take that 600-point profit?

Missing out is not scary, just hold your chips well. The pullback at the end of the April cycle is the starting point of the May cycle, as long as we capture this starting point well, we will be fine.
#btc走勢

Many fans ask me if I will look at analyses from big influencers. To be honest, I do follow them, but I can't rely on their analysis. I believe my analytical ability is already unique, and I don't need external factors to influence my mindset or sway my analysis.

The bull market from 2024 to 2025 has many significant trends that are firmly grasped.

January 11, 2024: After BTC spot ETF approval at 48900, I expect a bearish trend towards 35000 (with 38300 experiencing fluctuations).

In April 2024, I predict a bearish trend at 73000 and 57500, ultimately reaching 56500.

By the end of July 2024, I see 72000 being broken down to 65 and then to 5, even 48900 (85 black swan events firmly grasped), followed by an upward trend in the monthly cycle.

On September 6, 2024, I foresee a bearish trend at 53000 for bottoming out (market at 52500).

On October 10, 2024, with CPI at 60500, it ultimately rebounds to 58900, supported at 60500.

On November 5, 2024, I predict a bullish trend at 66800, but unfortunately, I didn't see it break 10.

On December 6, 2024, I expect a bearish trend to 90500, but it actually rises to 89000.

In 2024, I predict a bearish trend to 94500, followed by a reversal to the upside.

In 2025, there will be a downward fluctuation from a high position (weekly MACD death cross formation).

In April 2025, I predict a bullish trend at 74400, leading to a fluctuating monthly cycle upward, until a bull market is formed (weekly MACD death cross close to zero, fast line DIF touching bottom and bouncing back).

From 83000 to 85000, there will be fluctuations breaking through 86000 until 91800 to 95000, eventually narrowing to 92800 to 95000 fluctuations.

Currently, I am watching for a drop in early May. The market is at 89000-90500.

The only regret is that I anticipated a bearish trend last Christmas, but the market crashed three or four days earlier, resulting in a slightly late layout. Looking back, I can think of one point: during Western holidays, companies need to settle accounts in advance, so they won't wait until the New Year’s Day; they definitely have to act early, just like our Chinese Spring Festival. Companies give holidays, pay salaries, year-end bonuses, and various year-end settlements ahead of time. 😂😂😂

$BTC I clearly stated in my posts and live stream that the market would have a correction in early May, and there will not be a bull market for now. Whether it’s the combination of monthly cycles, weekly, daily, and 12-hour indicators, or the comprehensive analysis of news events, there is no reason or condition for capital to push the market up again.

The market always goes through cycles of harvesting, even the big spike on November 5 last year only had a one-month cycle before the market corrected and capital was sold off.

So what you see recently with the market at 92800-95000 is just a slight upward push that has already lasted for 11 days. If capital wanted to raise prices, a direct push to 99500 followed by consolidation would be the most perfect scenario. But why hasn’t that happened? It’s merely to bait the bulls into selling early and consolidating. Some newbies think capital wouldn’t be foolish enough to let retail investors enter at low prices. I just ask you: did you buy at 74500? Did you ride it up to 95000? Is capital afraid of you bottom fishing? Capital needs a drop and consolidation to activate the market; only when it’s active can it dig the right holes for everyone to jump in. Last year’s black swan event on the 85th didn’t see many successful bottom fishers; rather, it resulted in heavy losses. This market is like that; the vast majority of players are always late to the game, missing important logical analysis and entry opportunities.

This week, I mentioned in my posts and live streams that the market is expected to decline and consolidate in early May. I do not recommend going long; instead, you can observe and wait to buy the dip afterward. After all, the trend in May is expected to rise after a period of decline and consolidation, leading to a stable upward trend in the monthly cycle - that’s a guaranteed way to profit. For those who can’t hold back and are aggressive, they can choose to short and profit from this decline and consolidation.

Last night in the live chat, a fan was aggressive. I advised him to short near 96300 and ride the trend instead of choosing a long position. This is based on an overall analysis and prediction of the market. Currently, the market has maintained a profit of several hundred. At this point, what this fan needs to do is set his stop loss 100 points below the entry point of 96300, which is 96200. Take profits and continue to look for a downward movement, or take a wave and exit. This depends on your position size and profit expectations.

#btc走勢

The current trend of $BTC shows that capital is behaving provocatively; it's disgusting, but we must remain calm and refuse to go long at high positions. A market crash could happen at any time.
#加密市场反弹