Early this morning, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) strongly broke through $99,000, setting a new high since December 2024, just one step away from the $100,000 milestone. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has risen by 2.55%, with mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) also climbing, resulting in a general upward trend in the market.
Core Driver Analysis
1. Massive inflow of institutional funds
ETFs continue to attract capital: Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $142 million in a single day, with ARK Invest (ARKB) and Fidelity (FBTC) leading with $54.72 million and $39.91 million respectively. The total net asset value of ETFs reached $112.71 billion, with historical cumulative net inflows surpassing $40.7 billion.
Corporate accumulation wave: Japanese listed company Metaplanet issued bonds to acquire an additional 555 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 5,555 BTC; multiple U.S. states are advancing strategic Bitcoin reserve legislation, allowing the allocation of 5% of fiscal funds to Bitcoin.
2. Favorable macroeconomic conditions and policies
China's easing policies: The central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts released hundreds of billions in liquidity, stimulating a rise in risk appetite in the Asian market, with Bitcoin benefiting significantly as a high-beta asset.
Federal Reserve policy expectations: Although maintaining the interest rate at 4.25%-4.5%, Powell hinted at potential future rate cuts, diminishing the dollar's attractiveness and indirectly supporting Bitcoin's anti-inflation narrative.
Geopolitical catalysts: Trump announced a trade agreement with the UK and previewed "major news" next week, alleviating concerns about global trade frictions and boosting sentiment for risk assets.
3. On-chain data and technical support
On-chain health signals: Bitcoin's realized cap reached a new high of $889 billion, with a surge in the proportion of profitable trades among short-term holders (STH), shifting market sentiment to optimistic.
Key resistance breakthrough: Bitcoin has stabilized above all major moving averages, with the $97,000-$99,500 range forming a liquidity-rich area. If it breaks through $100,000, it may trigger FOMO sentiment, aiming for a target of $120,000.
Market Outlook
If Bitcoin stabilizes above $100,000, it could trigger a rapid influx of retail and institutional funds, pushing the price towards $120,000 and driving up ETH, SOL, and others. Conversely, if it fails to break through, it may retreat to the support range of $92,800-$90,000 in the short term.
