#鲍威尔讲话 Powell's remarks: The U.S. economy is currently a bit “divided”! Tariffs have become the biggest bomb; should we cut interest rates or tough it out? The Fed is in a tough spot this time…

The Fed Chairman just said: The economy is okay, but the 'data conflict' is overwhelming!

Today (May 8, 2025), Fed Chairman Powell opened with a key point: “The U.S. economy is still relatively stable, but the trade data is like a roller coaster—companies are hoarding goods like crazy after hearing about tariff increases, leading to a surge in imports, and now calculating GDP gives me a headache!”

What he didn’t explicitly say is: The quarterly GDP year-on-year growth rate was negative (-0.3%), but excluding those 'inflated' trade and inventory figures, the core growth is actually 2.56%. In other words, the economy appears a bit inflated on the surface, but the fundamentals are still okay.

What reassures him more is the job market: 'It’s not hard to find a job now, and companies aren’t panicking about hiring; the labor market is basically 'supply and demand balanced', the unemployment rate is steady at 4.2%, and wage growth isn’t so fierce anymore (3.8%). So don’t worry about workers driving inflation up; we won’t take the blame for that!'

Inflation has dropped, but tariffs have become a 'black swan', directly blowing expectations 'sky-high'!

Powell rarely praised inflation: 'It has come down quite a bit from the peak; now it’s just a tad above the 2% target (although he didn’t specify the exact number, but core PCE is still at 4.8%, you know what I mean).'

But then he suddenly turned serious: 'The bad news is that short-term inflation expectations have recently risen again! Why? Surveys show everyone is complaining about tariffs!' It turns out that the recent surge in tariffs in the U.S. (like on auto parts and small packages) has had a much greater impact than expected—business costs are skyrocketing, ultimately falling onto consumers.

He made a stark statement: 'If these outrageous tariffs are not lifted, the next nightmare combination will be 'high inflation + low employment'! Want to avoid price control? It all depends on when the tariffs stop, how large they are, and whether expectations for price increases can stabilize. If the tariffs remain rigid, the Fed can forget about achieving its KPI of 'stable prices + job protection' this year!'

Should we cut rates or tough it out? Powell plays 'Tai Chi': We are not in a hurry, but we don’t rule out…

What makes the market's heart race is when he talked about interest rates: 'Currently, the policy is somewhat 'moderately tightening', the potential inflation momentum is still okay, so we are not in a hurry to raise or cut interest rates—waiting has a low cost, we have time to observe.'

But he also left a caveat: 'In certain situations, cutting rates this year may be the right move, in other cases it may not be. To put it bluntly, even we don’t know how to proceed! If employment and inflation are at odds, we will look at which side is further from the target and how long it will take to correct. Anyway, once the timing is right, we will act quickly.'

Key point: A rate cut is possible, but not now! It’s highly likely to hold steady in June, and after July, we’ll see how tariffs play out—if the economy is knocked down by tariffs, a rate cut may come quickly; but if prices refuse to budge, then we will continue to hold firm.

Trump wants to force a rate cut? Powell retorts on the spot: Don’t think you can influence me!

Recently, Trump has been shouting 'Cut interest rates quickly', and Powell rolled his eyes: 'He does his thing, we do ours, the Fed’s work is never influenced by external factors.'

In a more assertive tone, when asked about Trump’s 'retraction of the firing threat', he pretended to be confused: 'There’s nothing much to say about this.' As for whether he would stay on the Fed Board if he were not the chairman, he left a remark: 'I’ve never considered that, I have no information on that.'

Finally, he added: “I have never sought out the President to talk; all meetings were initiated by him—we maintain our distance, you understand?” Implicit message: Don’t think about political interference, the Fed only speaks through data.

Should ordinary people be alarmed? Keep a close eye on these 3 things!

1. Progress in tariff negotiations: In the coming months, will the U.S. reconcile with major trading partners? Once tariffs are lifted, inflation pressures will immediately lighten, and rate cuts may come sooner;

2. Monthly employment reports and CPI data: If the unemployment rate suddenly rises, or if prices rebound, the Fed's policy may take a sharp turn;

3. Powell's 'words': Don’t be fooled by his current 'ambiguous' stance; every speech serves as a market barometer, especially for clues on 'interest rate cut conditions'.

Summary: The Fed is currently walking a tightrope—on the left is the inflation bomb triggered by tariffs, on the right is the cliff of economic slowdown. Powell must stabilize the market and prevent panic, while also avoiding making definitive statements, as the current U.S. economy really can’t afford to 'gamble' right now.

In the next six months, it all depends on two things: whether tariffs can be stopped, and whether the Fed dares to 'gamble' on a rate cut. For ordinary people, tighten your wallets, be ready for price fluctuations, and pray not to be laid off—after all, even the Fed admits this situation is a bit tough to crack! #美联储何时降息？