Today's core variable for Ethereum (ETH) movement focuses on the critical price level of 2531, whose gain or loss will be a decisive factor for the short-term bullish or bearish trend, with specific analysis as follows:

I. Bullish Pattern: Stabilizing above 2531 opens up the upward channel

As long as the ETH price remains stable above 2531, all cyclical technical patterns show a bullish arrangement, indicating dominant bullish strength and the potential for continued upward momentum. Subsequent attention should be focused on the following resistance levels:

- First resistance level 2605: This position is the upper edge of the previous trading congestion area, where a large number of trapped and profit-taking positions are clustered, making it prone to selling pressure.

- Second resistance level 2660: Corresponds to the key trendline resistance at the daily level, a breakthrough needs to be accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume.

- Third resistance level 2719: As an important integer level and historical high, breaking through will open up new upward space.

Trading Suggestions: Gradually build long positions relying on the 2531 support level, with an initial position controlled at 20%. Reduce positions by 15% to lock in profits after breaking through each resistance level; set a strict stop-loss 15-20 points below 2531 to guard against trend reversal risks.

II. Bearish Trend: Breaking below 2531 triggers a pullback

If the ETH price effectively breaks below the 2531 support level, the 1-hour timeframe will confirm a pullback trend, with bearish forces beginning to dominate the market. The subsequent support levels are:

- First support level 2485: Support area of the 50-period moving average, a concentration point for short-term buying.

- Second support level 2428: Lower edge of the previous consolidation range; losing this position may trigger panic selling.

- Third support level 2381: A key psychological level and historical strong support level, serving as the last defense line for the bulls.

Trading Suggestions: After the price breaks below 2531, a light position can be built on a confirmed pullback at resistance, with an initial position of 15%. Reduce positions by 10% to take profits at each support level; set stop-loss 15-20 points above 2531 to avoid false breakout risks.

III. Risk Control and Trading Discipline

1. Position Management: No single trade position should exceed 25%, and total holdings should not exceed 50%, diversifying investments to reduce risk.

2. Stop-loss Execution: Set stop-loss strictly 15-20 points above and below key levels, eliminating emotional influences on trading decisions.

3. Dynamic Adjustment: Closely monitor changes in trading volume, candlestick patterns, and sudden market news. If divergence signals appear, exit and observe in a timely manner.

IV. Strategy Summary

Today's core contradiction in the Ethereum market lies in the tug-of-war at the 2531 level. If the price stabilizes at this position, the bulls will dominate the market to push against upper resistance; if it is lost, the bears will start a pullback to test lower support. Investors are advised to closely monitor the validity of key level breakthroughs, strictly implement stop-loss and take-profit strategies, and flexibly adjust positions in conjunction with technical indicators and market sentiment, cautiously responding to the high volatility characteristics of the crypto market.$ETH #ETH走势分析