The market is witnessing Bitcoin (BTC) experiencing strong price increases while most altcoins are still sluggish. This is a familiar phenomenon in bull cycles, but carries many important implications:
1. BTC Rises First – Capital is Returning
BTC is always the leading asset in the crypto market. BTC rising first is often a sign that large capital and institutions are returning to the market, reflecting a shift in sentiment from defensive to positive.
However, altcoins not rising indicates:
New capital is still focusing on less risky assets.
Retail investors are still cautious, not yet ready to return to altcoins.
2. The “Bitcoin-led Rally” Phase – Preparing for Altseason?
Market history shows that a bull run cycle typically goes through 3 phases:
BTC rises strongly with the guidance of large capital.
ETH rises in tandem, confirming widespread market confidence.
Altcoins rise sharply when capital spreads across the market.
We are in phase 1 – the opportunity accumulation phase before altcoins break out.
3. Risks If BTC Rises Too Strongly
It's not always the case that when BTC rises, altcoins will rise immediately. There are some risks to be aware of:
BTC Dominance (BTC.D) rising above 55% can put selling pressure on altcoins.
BTC rising but without liquidity may be a sign of peak distribution.
FOMO sentiment in altcoins may be exploited to create a dump.
4. Strategy to Monitor and Act
Closely following BTC.D and ETH/BTC:
BTC.D decreases while BTC maintains its price is a signal that capital is shifting to altcoins.
An increase in ETH/BTC will confirm altseason.Prioritize altcoins with relatively strong performance: ETH, SOL, LINK, OP, AVAX…
Be patient: Altseason, if it occurs, typically comes 7–21 days after BTC.
In summary: BTC rising is a positive signal, but altseason is not coming immediately. The current phase is a time for observation, choosing a reasonable strategy to seize opportunities when capital truly spreads to altcoins.