Current price situation: XRP is trading around 2.169 USDT, up over 1% in the past 24 hours. Based on the analysis of technical indicators across time frames, we note several positive signals in the short term, but still face many risks from the long-term trend.
Analysis by time frame
1. 15-minute timeframe – Short-term increase but overbought
Price: 2.1693 (+1.10%)
EMA(7) > EMA(25) > EMA(99) → Clear uptrend
RSI(6): 85.49 → Strongly overbought
Positive MACD but narrowing
Volume decreased compared to average → Weakening upward momentum
2. 1-hour timeframe – Uptrend is weakening
Price: 2.1694 (+1.10%)
EMA(7) > EMA(25) > EMA(99) → Maintain upward momentum
RSI(6): 84.23 → Overbought
Positive MACD, but the DIF line shows signs of decline
Volume lower than average
3. 4-hour timeframe – Neutral, warning of reversal
Price: 2.1686 (+1.06%)
EMA(7) > EMA(25) but still below EMA(99) → May encounter significant resistance
RSI(6): 83.75 → Overbought
MACD still positive
Volume higher than average
4. 1-day timeframe – Long-term downward pressure
Price: 2.1678 (+1.02%)
EMA(7) < EMA(25) < EMA(99) → Long-term downtrend not yet broken
RSI neutral around 50
MACD still negative
High trading volume, reflecting significant selling pressure
Overview assessment and trading strategy
1. Success probability by each time frame:
Short-term (15m–1h): 55–60% (uptrend but overbought)
Medium-term (4h): 50% (mixed signals)
Long-term (1D): 40% (downward pressure still prevailing)
2. Proposed trading strategy:
Scenario 1 – Short-term trading (Scalping):
Enter buy order when breaking the 2.17 level, expecting to approach 2.18
Stop Loss: 2.165 | Take Profit: 2.18
Probability: 55% | R:R ratio ≈ 1:2
Scenario 2 – Buy after correction:
Wait for RSI to drop to the 60–65 range (1H timeframe) before entering an order
Stop Loss: below EMA(99) | Take Profit: 2.175
Probability: 65% | R:R ratio ≈ 1:1.5
Risk warning to be mindful of
RSI at overbought level on multiple time frames, likely to lead to sudden corrections
Long-term trend remains bearish, so be cautious with long positions
Need to manage capital tightly, each order should not exceed 2% of the account
Conclusion
XRP is showing signals of short-term increase, but long-term selling pressure is still present. Traders should prioritize a scalping strategy according to the trend, combined with close monitoring of MACD and RSI to exit positions promptly when reversal signs appear.