When the candlestick chart draws a strange curve on the eve of the Ethereum upgrade, a dangerous atmosphere pervades the market. Yesterday's plunge and today's surge followed by a retreat seem like a prelude to fate, bringing historical patterns back to the forefront. At this moment of uncertainty, the data does not lie — the cruel reality of the past three major upgrades, two plunges and one surge, is ringing alarm bells for the upcoming Prague upgrade.

One, upgrades mean changes: Ethereum cannot escape the cycle of fate

Looking back at history, every major upgrade of Ethereum resembles a carefully designed plot twist:


  • September 15, 2022: The long-awaited merge upgrade lands, but the market ends with a plunge, with a daily drop exceeding 15%, trapping countless late buyers;

  • April 12, 2023: The Shanghai upgrade unexpectedly triggers a surge, playing out a rare scenario of 'good news realization';

  • March 13, 2024: The Cancun upgrade follows suit, with prices diving on the day of the upgrade, and the contract market experiencing over $1 billion in liquidations.


Now, with the Prague upgrade on May 7, 2025, approaching, the market has fallen into a strange calm. This unusual behavior confirms the brutal truth of capital markets — the quieter it is, the more it is a precursor to a storm.

Two, the iron law of survival in the crypto world: use cognition to combat uncertainty

In this game full of temptations and traps, the true winner never relies on luck, but strictly adheres to the rules of survival:
1. Position management is the lifeline
With a principal of 200,000, capturing 2-3 instances of a 30% rise can lead to an asset leap; going all in is like handing your fate to a casino. Smart investors always keep 30% cash, which is not conservatism, but 'emergency funds' reserved for black swan events.


2. Earn money you understand
When the market is filled with myths of hundredfold coins, avoid blindly following the trend. Those suddenly skyrocketing 'meme coins' are often traps carefully designed by speculators. Stick to your circle of competence and only participate in investment opportunities you understand to avoid being harvested like leeks.
3. Good news is a selling signal
'Buy the expectation, sell the fact' is the eternal truth in the crypto world. The surge before the announcement of significant news is essentially a ploy to lure in more buyers. When good news is announced, a high opening candlestick is not a charge signal, but a retreat signal.
4. Stop losses must be more decisive than cutting losses
'Waiting to break even' has led countless investors to ruin. A 50% loss in principal requires doubling to break even, and in the highly volatile crypto world, the probability of breaking even is extremely low. Setting a 5% stop loss may seem harsh, but it is the last line of defense for survival.
5. Scale in, refuse to chase highs
A decline is the best buying opportunity, not an excuse to chase higher prices. Divide your funds into multiple parts and enter the market in phases during price corrections, which can lower costs and avoid the risk of a crash.

Three, less is more: find a balance between desire and reason

The crypto world is never short of stories of overnight wealth, but more often it is the tragedy of losing everything. Those who can navigate through bull and bear markets often deeply understand the wisdom of 'less is more' — reducing greed, lowering leverage, and controlling positions can actually help one survive longer in the market.


As the countdown to the Prague upgrade enters its final stage, instead of blindly predicting rises and falls, it is better to engrave these survival rules into the marrow of trading. Remember: in the crypto world, being alive means hope, and the secret to staying alive is always in the hands of disciplined rationalists.#美联储FOMC会议