In this cruel wealth game of cryptocurrencies, some leave in silence while others achieve a comeback worth tens of millions. A seasoned player who has been deep in the field for ten years shares his practical insights on transitioning from a confused retail investor to financial freedom. These experiences, earned with real money, may be the key to breaking through in the market.
One, the hidden lines in a crash: understand the silent promises of the market makers.
When the market suffers a bloodbath, some cryptocurrencies only experience slight declines or even rise against the trend — this is not a coincidence, but a signal of market maker control. Just like in the bear market of 2022, a certain mainstream coin only fell 3% while Bitcoin dropped 20%, and then surged over 150% in the following three months. These coins "protected" by market makers often hide future explosive potential. But remember: market maker support is a form of confidence, not a permanent umbrella, and must be combined with other indicators for comprehensive judgment.
Two, a survival guide for beginners: two moving averages determine the balance.
There is no shortcut to trading, but there are "foolproof" rules suitable for beginners: closely monitor the 5-day moving average for short-term trading; if the price stabilizes above it, hold the position; if it falls below, immediately stop loss. For medium-term positions, refer to the 20-day moving average, also adhering to the iron rule of "stay when above the line, exit when below." This method seems simple but can filter out 80% of ineffective fluctuations. There has been a retail investor who achieved double returns in Ethereum's rally solely based on the 5-day moving average.
Three, the hunting skills of the main upward wave: the secrets behind volume and price.
True opportunities are hidden in "silent rises." When a cryptocurrency enters a main upward wave but has not seen increased volume, it indicates that the chips are highly concentrated, at which point decisively enter the market; when there is a volume increase, hold firmly and enjoy the profits; if a decrease in volume occurs but the trend line is not broken, continue to hold. However, once there is an increase in volume accompanied by a break of the key trend line, you must immediately reduce your position — this is a dangerous signal of the main force's retreat.
Four, the life-and-death speed of short-term trading: the three-day agreement and the 5% red line.
Short-term trading emphasizes quick entry and exit: if there is no significant increase within three days after buying, decisively exit; if the price drops immediately after purchase, a loss of 5% must result in unconditional stop-loss. This seemingly harsh discipline is actually a lifesaver to avoid deep entrapment. An investor once dragged a 3% loss into a 30% liquidation because he was reluctant to stop loss, a painful lesson warns: in the cryptocurrency world, stopping loss is more important than making profits.
Five, the sniper technique of rebound from oversold: a golden pit of 50% in 8 days.
When a cryptocurrency is halved from its high and continues to fall for 8 trading days, it often enters the oversold zone. A popular altcoin in 2023 rebounded after a 55% drop, rising more than 40% within 48 hours. However, caution is needed when bottom-fishing: a significant drop does not mean an immediate reversal. It is recommended to use a small position for trial and error, waiting for a stop-loss signal before increasing investment.
Six, the game theory of leading coins: the correct way to chase highs and cut losses.
"The strong get stronger" is an iron rule in the cryptocurrency world. Leading cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum lead the market when rising and exhibit stronger resistance when falling. Do not be afraid of high prices, nor be misled by the "cost-performance ratio" of low-priced coins. The essence of operating leading coins is: dare to chase prices when breaking through highs, and be sure to take profits early before trend reversals.
Seven, the ultimate secret of trend trading: give up the obsession with bottom fishing.
Beginners always try to "buy at the lowest point," while experts wait for the "right moment." Guessing the bottom in a downtrend is like catching a flying knife with bare hands. Abandon underperforming coins and follow the upward trend; that is the way to go. In the early stage of the 2024 bull market, an investor missed a 300% rise in Bitcoin due to an obsession with bottom fishing weak altcoins, a profound lesson.
Eight, the core secret of sustained profit: establish your trading belief.
Short-term profits rely on luck, while continuous profits rely on a system. Review trading records daily to distinguish between luck-based profits and skill-based gains; refine a personalized trading system based on your character and capital. A certain professional trader's "three-layer filter trading method" has undergone five years of iteration, ultimately achieving an annualized return of over 200%. Remember: the stability of the system is more important than the success or failure of individual trades.
Nine, the art of being in cash: waiting is also a form of trading.
In the cryptocurrency world, "those who cannot stay in cash will eventually be eliminated by the market." When the market direction is unclear, cash is the best position; when opportunities arise, sufficient funds are needed to seize the行情. An investor who chose to stay in cash during the bear market of 2022 successfully avoided an 80% drop and doubled their assets in the following bull market. Trading is not about the number of trades, but about the odds of winning and risk control.
These experiences soaked in blood and tears may not make you rich overnight, but they can help you survive longer in the turbulent cryptocurrency market. Remember: there is no everlasting bull market, nor unchanging strategies. Only by respecting the market and strictly adhering to discipline can you laugh to the end in this wealth game.
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