When the nerves of the global capital markets are stretched to a critical point, a storm capable of rewriting the fate of the crypto market is brewing in the deep night. At 2 AM Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is about to unveil its secrets, while the Ethereum upgrade collides with it, filling this night with a deadly powdery taste. Is it the darkness before dawn, or the prelude to a collapse? All investors are holding their breath for this 'judgment moment'. 1. The Sword of Damocles of the Federal Reserve: A bloody warning under the collapse of interest rate cut expectations The market has long reached a consensus on the 'zero interest rate cut' outcome, but the real nuclear bomb is hidden in the future guidance. The latest data shows that the probability of a rate cut in June has halved from 68% to 31.8%, while the expectation of no rate cut has soared to 67%. Once Powell releases hawkish signals, Bitcoin may face a 'snow washing' correction — this level of volatility is enough to cause countless contract accounts to instantly zero out.

History does not repeat itself simply, but always carries similar rhymes. Looking back at the violent rate hike cycle of the Federal Reserve in 2022, the crypto market experienced a brutal decline of more than 70%. Now a similar script is being replayed, and the market's fragility is even greater than two years ago. 2. The Ethereum Upgrade Scam: The Death Trap After Mainstream Withdrawal The Ethereum upgrade, which should have attracted widespread attention, has now fallen into a strange calm. There is no expected tug-of-war between bulls and bears, no dramatic price fluctuations, the market is like a stagnant pond. Behind this abnormal phenomenon is the quiet withdrawal of major funds. On-chain data shows that in the past two weeks, whale addresses have transferred over $1 billion in Ethereum assets.

Even more deadly is the timing: after the upgrade is completed, it will face the Federal Reserve's 'nuclear-level' interest rate decision. Historical experience shows that major technological upgrades often become a cover for major players to offload, and this time colliding with the Federal Reserve storm, Ethereum is likely to escape the fate of 'double kill' in the plunge. 3. The Fatal Temptation of High Position Fluctuations: Beware of the Lure Trap After a morning rebound, Bitcoin and Ethereum maintain a high-level fluctuation pattern. The seemingly strong trend actually hides a deadly trap. This 'boiling frog' market situation is a common tactic used by major players to lure more buyers — making retail investors chase high prices in hesitation and get stuck in fantasies.

A seasoned trader warns: 'When the market is too quiet, it often brews the fiercest storm. Chasing high now is like dancing on a powder keg.' In this night of overflowing uncertainty, preserving capital is more important than seeking profits. 4. Survival Guide: Coping Strategies in the Storm In this life-and-death game, staying clear-headed is more crucial than predicting trends:
Refuse to blindly chase high: High-level fluctuations are a dangerous signal, better to miss out than to make a mistake. Control position: Be sure to keep contract leverage below 5 times, and it's recommended to reduce spot positions to below 50%. Keep a close eye on the data: Focus on keywords about interest rate cuts in Powell's speech, as well as the cash flow on the Ethereum chain.

As the clock hands approach 2 AM, the entire crypto market will hold its breath. Regardless of the outcome, this night is destined to be recorded in history. Remember: in the crypto space, survival is not about who earns the most, but who can still be alive after the storm. Are you ready for tonight?#美联储FOMC会议