#比特币预测
🔮 Long and Short Game Analysis
1. Bitcoin (BTC): 97k Watershed
• Technical Analysis:
o Support:
94,600U (5-day + 10-day moving average double insurance)
93,500U (Weekly EMA50 + on-chain liquidation zone)
o Resistance:
97,800U (Previous high + CME gap location)
98,500U (Last hurdle before hitting 100k)
• Scenario:
o Bullish: Stabilize at 96.9k and push to 97.8k → Break through the psychological barrier of 100k (Institutions placing buy orders at 96k)
o Bearish: Fall below 94.6k and see 93.5k → Panic selling may spike to 92k (On-chain liquidation volume increasing warning)
2. Ethereum (ETH):
• Technical Analysis:
o Support:
1,800U (Psychological defense line + daily EMA50)
1,770U (Staking liquidation zone)
o Resistance:
1,860U (Fibonacci 61.8% level)
1,880U (Heavy selling pressure area before Pectra upgrade)
• Correlation: ETH/BTC exchange rate hits a new low for the year, needs Bitcoin to lead the way for a rebound
💣 Tonight's Nuclear Event
1. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (2 AM):
• Expectation: 97% chance of no rate hike, but Powell's speech may lean hawkish
• Action: Reduce positions by 20% before the decision, go short on hawkish comments, chase breakthroughs on dovish remarks!
2. Post-China-US Negotiations:
• Indicator: If signals of tariff concessions are released → BTC hits 100k; if negotiations collapse → spike to 94k