Key indicators (April 28, 4 PM - May 5, 4 PM Hong Kong time)

  • BTC to USD price unchanged (94,700 dollars -> 94,700 dollars), ETH to USD up 1.4% (1,800 dollars -> 1,825 dollars)

  • This week, as the market stabilizes, cryptocurrency prices fluctuate within a small range and failed to touch the key resistance level of 99-100 thousand dollars. The support at 89-91 thousand dollars currently keeps the price within the current range, but if this support level is broken, the price may significantly adjust down to 85 thousand dollars. With the end of several holidays last week, we expect to see the price being moved in one direction - possibly attempting to test 100 thousand dollars - but if it fails to break through, it could lead to an extended period of low volatility.

  • We remain bullish on Bitcoin, expecting it to reach 115-125 thousand dollars in the coming months or quarters.

Market themes

  • Because last week was mainly a holiday, the global market had a calm week. The stock market continued to rise. With Trump and Bessent continuing to push for agreements with China, as well as agreements with other countries or regions that are 'about to be announced' (but the market has already anticipated this), the S&P index has recovered the gap since the 'Trump Liberation Day' in early April. Non-farm data is the main data for this week, with unexpectedly strong data easing concerns about an economic slowdown and supporting the rise of U.S. stocks, while several leading companies' earnings data were also quite strong.

  • In terms of cryptocurrency, last week was a very quiet week. Bitcoin remained virtually unchanged for 7 consecutive days, although it briefly rose to 97.8 thousand dollars on Friday night but quickly fell back. MSTR continued to purchase Bitcoin (totaling 180 million dollars last week) and announced another round of equity plans to continue buying Bitcoin (as the first round of 2.1 billion of equity has been exhausted), but overall this wave of purchases has been fully absorbed by the market. Currently, the 92-96 thousand dollars range seems to be Bitcoin's equilibrium price range. We have long stabilized here since February and hovered around this level before tariff news. Therefore, we expect to see a long period of consolidation within the current range unless significant external factors influence it.

BTC ATM Implied Volatility

  • Last week's implied volatility briefly rose on Monday due to the increase in cryptocurrency prices, then gradually declined. High-frequency actual volatility stabilized at just above 30, while the term structure is very steep (currently, the market is pricing a return to volatility levels of around 50 from the end of May to June), which means it is difficult to make profits on any long positions at the far end of the term. We suspect the market is holding long positions due to selling pressure over the past few weeks and finds it hard to maintain them, hence the short-term volatility is being suppressed.

  • In the very short term, the market has not priced in much for this week's Federal Reserve meeting (only pricing a 40 bps price change). We expect to see relevant buyers appear soon.

BTC Skew/Kurtosis

  • As the price briefly broke through 97 thousand dollars and there was a glimmer of hope for reaching 99-100 thousand dollars, the skew was initially heavily biased upward. However, ultimately the price stagnated and broke below 94 thousand dollars at the beginning of this week, pushing the skew price back to lower levels as the market realized that the current price could develop in either direction.

  • Due to the subdued actual volatility this week and the price staying within a comfortable zone, selling pressure on both sides increased, leading to a decrease in kurtosis. However, considering our current low volatility, we believe that a breakout from the current range of 89-99 thousand dollars will accelerate upward. This will also be accompanied by a significant bias towards the corresponding side (meaning a breakout above 99 thousand dollars will bias upward, while a drop below 89 thousand dollars will bias downward).

Wishing everyone good luck this week!