Fundamentals:
1. The People's Bank of China announced a rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut, including: a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide about 1 trillion in long-term liquidity to the market; a 0.1 percentage point reduction in the policy interest rate, lowering it from 1.5% to 1.4%; and a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the announced interest rate for structural monetary policy, as well as a 0.25 percentage point reduction in provident fund rates. The A-shares opened higher, and Bitcoin surged over 3000 points in a short time.
2. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2 AM, with a 96.9% probability of keeping rates unchanged. Focus on the content of the meeting.
3. USDC Treasury minted 250 million USDC.
Technical analysis:
BTC: The increase in stablecoin issuance adds liquidity to the market, and the central bank's rate cuts provide support. Bitcoin surged over 3000 points this morning, reaching a recent high of around 98. The daily chart shows three consecutive bearish candlesticks, which have touched the low of around 93 for the past half month. Yesterday, it formed a small bullish candlestick, ending the downtrend, and currently, a large bullish candlestick is forming on the daily chart, recovering the losses from May. In the short term, Bitcoin's price is expected to challenge the 100,000 mark. On the 4-hour chart, yesterday it briefly broke below the 30-day moving average but then regained support above it, with multiple retests of the moving average in the evening without breaking it. The market is turning upwards again, with the lower moving averages forming a golden crossover. However, after a rapid and significant rise, the market may undergo some minor adjustments before continuing the upward trend. In daily operations, focus on the support level of 965-955 below and the resistance level of 975-985 above, with particular attention to the content of the interest rate meeting at 2 AM tonight!
ETH: Since the new low, Ethereum's daily chart has shown an increase in volume, and the adjustment phase has seen reduced volume, which is a typical 'healthy upward trend'. Last week, the trading volume was slightly insufficient, with multiple instances of testing the lower bounds. Yesterday, the daily chart once again formed a typical 'hammer candlestick', regaining the level above 1800. After the volume increase, we are entering a phase of reduced volume adjustment, and the repeated testing of lower bounds is characteristic of the main force's accumulation behavior, concentrating chips for a future breakout. Over the past half month, Ethereum has formed a defensive lower bound at the 1750-1720 level, with limited room for correction. With the completion of this mainnet upgrade, its advantages are gradually being revealed, and the Ethereum market will gradually improve. On the 4-hour chart, last night the price tested the 1750 level, forming a doji candlestick, with a short-term increase of nearly 100 points, and currently showing a slight correction, which is a normal pullback after a rapid rise. In daily operations, focus on the support level of 1815-1795 below and the resistance level of 1845-1865 above.
Altcoins: The core of this Ethereum mainnet upgrade is the POS consensus mechanism, sharding, data, state simplification, and separation of execution and consensus layers, aiming to solve issues of scalability, performance, security, and sustainability. We can capture quality projects around these core topics. Near has a better sharding solution than ETH 2.0 and has already submitted a listing application to the SEC. The downside space is limited, with the current price at 2.23 worth monitoring; in the meme sector, WIF and pepe have shown a turnaround after five days of adjustment, which can be a focus!
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