狼叔
（公众号:三哥的交易笔记）
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在币圈这些年，你得到了啥？
在币圈摸爬滚打多年，回首这段历程，仿佛置身于一场充满诱惑与陷阱的奇幻迷宫，看似机遇丛生，实则暗流涌动，得到的与失去的交织成一幅复杂的人生图景。
财务幻梦的短暂破灭与觉醒：初入币圈时，我怀揣着对财富自由的炽热渴望，被那些一夜暴富的神话冲昏头脑。看着行情软件上跳动的数字，仿佛只要轻点鼠标，财富便会如潮水般涌来。早期，我幸运地赶上了某个小众山寨币的暴涨行情，账户资金在短短数日内翻了几倍，那种兴奋与满足感至今仍历历在目。然而，币圈的暴涨暴跌犹如家常便饭，还没等我从喜悦中缓过神来，市场风云突变，币价如瀑布般直泻而下，之前的盈利瞬间化为乌有，本金也遭受重创。这场过山车般的经历，让我深刻认识到虚拟货币市场的极度不稳定性和不可预测性。我得到的，是财务上短暂的“虚假繁荣”以及随之而来的沉重打击，而失去的，是对财富积累的盲目乐观和投机取巧的心态。它如同一记警钟，让我明白财富的积累绝非一蹴而就，需要脚踏实地、稳健投资。
认知的拓展与思维的局限：币圈是一个充满创新与变革的领域，它涵盖了区块链技术、密码学、分布式账本等前沿知识。为了在这个复杂的市场中生存，我不得不努力学习相关知识，研究不同的项目白皮书，了解行业
财务幻梦的短暂破灭与觉醒：初入币圈时，我怀揣着对财富自由的炽热渴望，被那些一夜暴富的神话冲昏头脑。看着行情软件上跳动的数字，仿佛只要轻点鼠标，财富便会如潮水般涌来。早期，我幸运地赶上了某个小众山寨币的暴涨行情，账户资金在短短数日内翻了几倍，那种兴奋与满足感至今仍历历在目。然而，币圈的暴涨暴跌犹如家常便饭，还没等我从喜悦中缓过神来，市场风云突变，币价如瀑布般直泻而下，之前的盈利瞬间化为乌有，本金也遭受重创。这场过山车般的经历，让我深刻认识到虚拟货币市场的极度不稳定性和不可预测性。我得到的，是财务上短暂的“虚假繁荣”以及随之而来的沉重打击，而失去的，是对财富积累的盲目乐观和投机取巧的心态。它如同一记警钟，让我明白财富的积累绝非一蹴而就，需要脚踏实地、稳健投资。
认知的拓展与思维的局限：币圈是一个充满创新与变革的领域，它涵盖了区块链技术、密码学、分布式账本等前沿知识。为了在这个复杂的市场中生存，我不得不努力学习相关知识，研究不同的项目白皮书，了解行业
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I want to share a rolling position method I've used!
In the cryptocurrency market, rolling positions (also known as 'rolling positions' or 'compound scaling') is a trading strategy that aims to maximize profits by gradually increasing profitable positions, but it also comes with high risks. Here are some practical rolling position methods and notes:
Core Logic of Rolling Positions
Profit Scaling: Gradually increase positions based on profits, leveraging the compound effect to amplify returns.
Trend Following: Rolling positions are typically suitable for unidirectional trend markets (such as bull or bear markets), avoiding frequent operations in a sideways market.
Risk Management: Reduce risks by setting stop losses, controlling leverage ratios, and position sizes.
Core Logic of Rolling Positions
Profit Scaling: Gradually increase positions based on profits, leveraging the compound effect to amplify returns.
Trend Following: Rolling positions are typically suitable for unidirectional trend markets (such as bull or bear markets), avoiding frequent operations in a sideways market.
Risk Management: Reduce risks by setting stop losses, controlling leverage ratios, and position sizes.
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April 2025 Cryptocurrency Strategy Analysis: Bitcoin Pullback Opportunities and Altcoin Breakthroughs
The current cryptocurrency market is at a critical juncture where Bitcoin's dominance is weakening, and the rotation of altcoins is accelerating. Combining on-chain data, institutional trends, and historical patterns, investors need to seize tactical opportunities in Bitcoin's pullback while also positioning themselves in altcoins that have fundamental support. The following analysis will be conducted from three dimensions: market cycles, fund flows, and technical patterns.
The Tactical Value and Risk Boundaries of Bitcoin's Pullback
Nature of Pullback: Technical Correction Rather than Trend Reversal
After Bitcoin breaks through $109,500 in January 2025, it experienced a 26% deep pullback, but long-term holders (LTH) did not sell off massively, and miner selling pressure remained at a median level. On-chain data shows that the current pullback is closer to a 'catch-up' adjustment, similar to the 40% pullback during the 2017 bull market, allowing space for subsequent energy accumulation. From a technical perspective, $80,000 has become a dividing line for bulls and bears; if this support level is held, it may open a channel to $120,000-$150,000; however, caution is needed as short-term holders' cost basis is concentrated around $83,000, which may trigger selling pressure.
The Tactical Value and Risk Boundaries of Bitcoin's Pullback
Nature of Pullback: Technical Correction Rather than Trend Reversal
After Bitcoin breaks through $109,500 in January 2025, it experienced a 26% deep pullback, but long-term holders (LTH) did not sell off massively, and miner selling pressure remained at a median level. On-chain data shows that the current pullback is closer to a 'catch-up' adjustment, similar to the 40% pullback during the 2017 bull market, allowing space for subsequent energy accumulation. From a technical perspective, $80,000 has become a dividing line for bulls and bears; if this support level is held, it may open a channel to $120,000-$150,000; however, caution is needed as short-term holders' cost basis is concentrated around $83,000, which may trigger selling pressure.
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Feeling comfortable again!
New fans just got to experience the first wave of big profits!
Taking down a wave without any pressure!
As long as you understand the mindset of the big players, even if you don't make money, you won't get cut!
Moreover, as long as the trading volume increases and there isn't a significant pullback!
There will basically be a second wave!
When the market comes alive, it's a great time to make money!
$DOGE $TURBO $PNUT
#加密市场反弹 #Strategy增持比特币 #币安Alpha上新
New fans just got to experience the first wave of big profits!
Taking down a wave without any pressure!
As long as you understand the mindset of the big players, even if you don't make money, you won't get cut!
Moreover, as long as the trading volume increases and there isn't a significant pullback!
There will basically be a second wave!
When the market comes alive, it's a great time to make money!
$DOGE $TURBO $PNUT
#加密市场反弹 #Strategy增持比特币 #币安Alpha上新
See original
The big one is coming!
There are already signs of a market rebound!
All major sectors are experiencing a general rise!
Prepare to lead fans to reallocate tenfold and hundredfold coins!
Get ready to enjoy the gains!
We will meet directly at the peak!
$TRUMP $XRP $DOGE
#加密市场反弹 #BNBChainMeme热潮 #Strategy增持比特币
There are already signs of a market rebound!
All major sectors are experiencing a general rise!
Prepare to lead fans to reallocate tenfold and hundredfold coins!
Get ready to enjoy the gains!
We will meet directly at the peak!
$TRUMP $XRP $DOGE
#加密市场反弹 #BNBChainMeme热潮 #Strategy增持比特币
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Successfully bottomed out!
The bulls have already returned!
Is there still anyone who is stuck losing money?
Those who got on board have already started making profits!
This market will continue to rise!
Those who are short should think twice!
$SHIB $ADA $XRP
#币安Alpha上新 #BNBChainMeme热潮 #Strategy增持比特币
The bulls have already returned!
Is there still anyone who is stuck losing money?
Those who got on board have already started making profits!
This market will continue to rise!
Those who are short should think twice!
$SHIB $ADA $XRP
#币安Alpha上新 #BNBChainMeme热潮 #Strategy增持比特币
🔥🔥🔥
The big one is coming!
The bull market is really about to arrive!
Because the blockchain gaming sector is experiencing a widespread increase!
defi sector is also seeing a general increase!
No need to worry about whether the Bitcoin bull market is still on or not!
Just need to focus on whether the altcoin bull market still exists!
Opportunities that can change the lives of ordinary people will only appear in altcoins!
$ETH $SOL $DOGE
#加密市场反弹 #币安Alpha上新 #BNBChainMeme热潮
The big one is coming!
The bull market is really about to arrive!
Because the blockchain gaming sector is experiencing a widespread increase!
defi sector is also seeing a general increase!
No need to worry about whether the Bitcoin bull market is still on or not!
Just need to focus on whether the altcoin bull market still exists!
Opportunities that can change the lives of ordinary people will only appear in altcoins!
$ETH $SOL $DOGE
#加密市场反弹 #币安Alpha上新 #BNBChainMeme热潮
See original
🔥🔥🔥
The big one is coming!
The bull market is really about to arrive!
Because the blockchain gaming sector is experiencing a widespread increase!
defi sector is also seeing a general increase!
No need to worry about whether the Bitcoin bull market is still on or not!
Just need to focus on whether the altcoin bull market still exists!
Opportunities that can change the lives of ordinary people will only appear in altcoins!
$ETH $SOL $DOGE
#加密市场反弹 #币安Alpha上新 #BNBChainMeme热潮
The big one is coming!
The bull market is really about to arrive!
Because the blockchain gaming sector is experiencing a widespread increase!
defi sector is also seeing a general increase!
No need to worry about whether the Bitcoin bull market is still on or not!
Just need to focus on whether the altcoin bull market still exists!
Opportunities that can change the lives of ordinary people will only appear in altcoins!
$ETH $SOL $DOGE
#加密市场反弹 #币安Alpha上新 #BNBChainMeme热潮
See original
Recently, I took a week off due to personal emotions. Now I have re-organized my market thinking. With the continuous rise of the blockchain gaming sector yesterday, the next to rise should be the AI sector. I'm preparing to set up an early ambush!
$SOL $GALA $PIXEL
#加密市场反弹 #Strategy增持比特币 #特朗普施压鲍威尔
$SOL $GALA $PIXEL
#加密市场反弹 #Strategy增持比特币 #特朗普施压鲍威尔
See original
Recently, I took a week off due to personal emotional reasons. Now I have reorganized my market thoughts, and with the continuous rise of the chain game sector yesterday, the next to rise should be the AI sector. I am preparing to stealthily position myself for a wave!
$SOL $GALA $PIXEL
#加密市场反弹 #Strategy增持比特币 #特朗普施压鲍威尔
$SOL $GALA $PIXEL
#加密市场反弹 #Strategy增持比特币 #特朗普施压鲍威尔
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Grayscale's Reduction of Bitcoin Holdings and the Logic Behind BTC's Decline
On April 15, Bitcoin fell from $86,000 to $83,000, resonating with the sharp decline in U.S. stocks. On that day, the S&P 500 index dropped by 2.3%, and the Nasdaq index plummeted by 3.1%, with the sell-off in traditional risk assets directly impacting the cryptocurrency market. This correlation indicates that, although some investors view cryptocurrencies as 'safe-haven assets', their relationship with U.S. stocks remains difficult to sever in the face of systemic risk in the global market.
The Deeper Logic Behind Grayscale's Reduction
Grayscale's reduction of 9,066 BTC (approximately $720 million) within 30 days needs to be interpreted from both the mechanism and motivation perspectives.
The Inevitability of Passive Reduction: The operational model of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) necessitates that it sell BTC based on investors' redemption demands. When investors turn to other low-fee ETFs (such as BlackRock's IBIT), Grayscale must sell BTC on the spot market to meet redemptions, which is not an active bearish stance but rather a passive operation under the ETF mechanism.
Collapse of High Fees and Premium Rates: Grayscale's annual management fee of 1.5% is significantly higher than that of other issuers (such as BlackRock's 0.12%), causing the GBTC premium rate to drop from historical highs of over 20% to negative values. Investors are voting with their feet, leading to continuous capital outflows that force Grayscale to sell BTC.
Impact of Policy Uncertainty: The Trump administration's inconsistent regulatory stance on cryptocurrencies, coupled with the SEC's scrutiny of Grayscale's ETF compliance, further exacerbates market concerns about the stability of Grayscale's holdings.
$SOL $OM $BABY
#巨鲸动向 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #CPI数据来袭
Market Impact and Future Outlook
Although Grayscale's reduction temporarily suppresses BTC prices, it is necessary to assess the diversion of institutional funds in conjunction with changes in market structure: the rise of low-fee ETFs like BlackRock's IBIT is reconstructing the cryptocurrency investment landscape. Grayscale's market share has dropped from over 80% to 62.5%, indicating that funds are flowing towards more efficient investment tools.
Grayscale's reduction is essentially a microcosm of market structural adjustment, rather than a signal of cryptocurrency value collapse. Investors should remain cautious of short-term volatility, but should pay more attention to the long-term trends of policy implementation and the flow of institutional capital.
On April 15, Bitcoin fell from $86,000 to $83,000, resonating with the sharp decline in U.S. stocks. On that day, the S&P 500 index dropped by 2.3%, and the Nasdaq index plummeted by 3.1%, with the sell-off in traditional risk assets directly impacting the cryptocurrency market. This correlation indicates that, although some investors view cryptocurrencies as 'safe-haven assets', their relationship with U.S. stocks remains difficult to sever in the face of systemic risk in the global market.
The Deeper Logic Behind Grayscale's Reduction
Grayscale's reduction of 9,066 BTC (approximately $720 million) within 30 days needs to be interpreted from both the mechanism and motivation perspectives.
The Inevitability of Passive Reduction: The operational model of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) necessitates that it sell BTC based on investors' redemption demands. When investors turn to other low-fee ETFs (such as BlackRock's IBIT), Grayscale must sell BTC on the spot market to meet redemptions, which is not an active bearish stance but rather a passive operation under the ETF mechanism.
Collapse of High Fees and Premium Rates: Grayscale's annual management fee of 1.5% is significantly higher than that of other issuers (such as BlackRock's 0.12%), causing the GBTC premium rate to drop from historical highs of over 20% to negative values. Investors are voting with their feet, leading to continuous capital outflows that force Grayscale to sell BTC.
Impact of Policy Uncertainty: The Trump administration's inconsistent regulatory stance on cryptocurrencies, coupled with the SEC's scrutiny of Grayscale's ETF compliance, further exacerbates market concerns about the stability of Grayscale's holdings.
$SOL $OM $BABY
#巨鲸动向 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #CPI数据来袭
Market Impact and Future Outlook
Although Grayscale's reduction temporarily suppresses BTC prices, it is necessary to assess the diversion of institutional funds in conjunction with changes in market structure: the rise of low-fee ETFs like BlackRock's IBIT is reconstructing the cryptocurrency investment landscape. Grayscale's market share has dropped from over 80% to 62.5%, indicating that funds are flowing towards more efficient investment tools.
Grayscale's reduction is essentially a microcosm of market structural adjustment, rather than a signal of cryptocurrency value collapse. Investors should remain cautious of short-term volatility, but should pay more attention to the long-term trends of policy implementation and the flow of institutional capital.
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I don't know how many brothers are paying attention to the coin $KERNEL !
It's very similar to baby from a few days ago!
What everyone is afraid to do, I dare to do!
Plus, the hype is still there!
The big players will definitely find a way to raise the coin price!
I still highly recommend taking a bite out of this!
$DOGE $XRP
#巨鲸动向 #CPI数据来袭 #保护您的资产
It's very similar to baby from a few days ago!
What everyone is afraid to do, I dare to do!
Plus, the hype is still there!
The big players will definitely find a way to raise the coin price!
I still highly recommend taking a bite out of this!
$DOGE $XRP
#巨鲸动向 #CPI数据来袭 #保护您的资产
See original
U.S. stocks opened slightly lower before starting to buy the dip.
Ethereum's upgrade will be speculated in advance.
This is also why Ethereum will be stronger.
Relatively strong cryptocurrencies include Aave, MKR, LINK, and UNI.
All of them can be accumulated!
$XRP $PEPE
#巨鲸动向 #CPI数据来袭 #SEC加密资产证券披露指南
Ethereum's upgrade will be speculated in advance.
This is also why Ethereum will be stronger.
Relatively strong cryptocurrencies include Aave, MKR, LINK, and UNI.
All of them can be accumulated!
$XRP $PEPE
#巨鲸动向 #CPI数据来袭 #SEC加密资产证券披露指南
See original
$OM 暴雷，It is said that a team deposited large amounts of tokens into the exchange, causing market panic and many investment institutions and retail investors to start selling tokens, leading to a market decline of over 90%.
But I think this can also be seen as the arrival of an opportunity; seizing the opportunity might be the chance for most retail investors to turn their fortunes around!
$XRP $ETH
#巨鲸动向 #CPI数据来袭
But I think this can also be seen as the arrival of an opportunity; seizing the opportunity might be the chance for most retail investors to turn their fortunes around!
$XRP $ETH
#巨鲸动向 #CPI数据来袭
See original
$BABY doesn't know if the brothers have eaten this wave of empty pills, it's the same as what I analyzed, this kind of strong institutional coin showing a pump phenomenon is just trying to offload, once the offloading is about done, no matter what position it is in, it will start to dump!
#巨鲸动向 #CPI数据来袭 #特朗普暂停新关税
#巨鲸动向 #CPI数据来袭 #特朗普暂停新关税
As long as the dealer has enough chips in hand for this type of currency, when favorable news comes out, it is certain that the price will be pushed up. The purpose of pushing up the price is to sell off. Once you understand this dealer mentality, you won't be confused about how to operate when such strong dealer coins appear again.
Lastly, a reminder that after strong dealer coins are sold off, a price drop is inevitable, so it's best to know when to be content!
If you have any questions, feel free to consult!
#加密市场反弹 #CPI数据来袭
Lastly, a reminder that after strong dealer coins are sold off, a price drop is inevitable, so it's best to know when to be content!
If you have any questions, feel free to consult!
#加密市场反弹 #CPI数据来袭
See original
Daily Trading Suggestions
BTC daily MACD golden cross, with increased volume, there is a demand for a rebound in the future. It is recommended to buy on dips; short-term spot trading can be considered. The resistance above is 86000, and the support below is 79200. For the four-hour level, buy on a dip at 81500, with a stop loss at 80500 and a take profit at 85500. The 3-day line shows a divergence at the bottom; it is advisable to enter boldly on the next dip as a trend reversal is approaching. It is recommended to accumulate positions at the bottom, with support below at 76000-73000.
ETH is weak in upward movement, and the 3000 level may need to wait for Vitalik's old age. There is heavy resistance above 2100, and below 1750 is the market maker's chip area. Suggested strategy: buy on a dip at 1475 with a stop loss at 1400; sell on a rebound at 1750 with a stop loss at 1820. If positioning in spot trading, entry can be considered below 1500 and hold for a while, selling around 2000.
There isn't much to say about San Zhai; you can pay attention to sei in spot trading.
Trading is actually very similar to gambling; in the trading market, it's much more respectable than rolling dice in a chaotic casino, and it can gain more societal recognition. Nothing brings more pleasure than the profits from trading, which causes many people to feel empty if they are not holding a position or trading.
BTC daily MACD golden cross, with increased volume, there is a demand for a rebound in the future. It is recommended to buy on dips; short-term spot trading can be considered. The resistance above is 86000, and the support below is 79200. For the four-hour level, buy on a dip at 81500, with a stop loss at 80500 and a take profit at 85500. The 3-day line shows a divergence at the bottom; it is advisable to enter boldly on the next dip as a trend reversal is approaching. It is recommended to accumulate positions at the bottom, with support below at 76000-73000.
ETH is weak in upward movement, and the 3000 level may need to wait for Vitalik's old age. There is heavy resistance above 2100, and below 1750 is the market maker's chip area. Suggested strategy: buy on a dip at 1475 with a stop loss at 1400; sell on a rebound at 1750 with a stop loss at 1820. If positioning in spot trading, entry can be considered below 1500 and hold for a while, selling around 2000.
There isn't much to say about San Zhai; you can pay attention to sei in spot trading.
Trading is actually very similar to gambling; in the trading market, it's much more respectable than rolling dice in a chaotic casino, and it can gain more societal recognition. Nothing brings more pleasure than the profits from trading, which causes many people to feel empty if they are not holding a position or trading.
See original
As long as the dealer has enough chips in hand for this type of currency, when favorable news comes out, it is certain that the price will be pushed up. The purpose of pushing up the price is to sell off. Once you understand this dealer mentality, you won't be confused about how to operate when such strong dealer coins appear again.
Lastly, a reminder that after strong dealer coins are sold off, a price drop is inevitable, so it's best to know when to be content!
If you have any questions, feel free to consult!
#加密市场反弹 #CPI数据来袭
Lastly, a reminder that after strong dealer coins are sold off, a price drop is inevitable, so it's best to know when to be content!
If you have any questions, feel free to consult!
#加密市场反弹 #CPI数据来袭
See original
Why are you losing money in the cryptocurrency market?
There is a very foolish method for trading cryptocurrencies. I have tried many trading methods, but most of them lack practicality. Only this method has allowed me to achieve relatively consistent profits. I am still using this method to this day, which is high and very stable.
Everyone need not worry about whether you can learn this. If I can seize this opportunity, so can you. I am not a god; I am just an ordinary person. The difference between others and me is that others have overlooked this method. If you can learn this method and pay attention to it in future trading, it can help you earn an additional 3 to 10 points in profit every day.
Everyone need not worry about whether you can learn this. If I can seize this opportunity, so can you. I am not a god; I am just an ordinary person. The difference between others and me is that others have overlooked this method. If you can learn this method and pay attention to it in future trading, it can help you earn an additional 3 to 10 points in profit every day.
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Trump Suspends Tariffs for 90 Days, Global Market Rebounds as BTC Faces CPI Data Test Tonight
Macroeconomic interpretation: When President Trump announced a '90-day pause' on tariff policy, the global capital markets seemed to be injected with a strong dose of adrenaline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced an epic one-day increase of 7.87%, and the Nasdaq recorded its second-largest single-day surge in history. This 'tariff reprieve' that began in Washington not only revitalized traditional financial markets but also triggered a remarkable counterattack in the crypto world—Bitcoin jumped from a recent low of $74,500 to a peak of $83,588, with a 24-hour increase of over 8.7% perfectly illustrating the notion that 'one day in the crypto world is equivalent to a year in the human world.'
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