Fundamentals:
1. According to an official announcement from Coinbase, the Ethereum Pectra upgrade will take place at 3:05 AM Pacific Time on May 7 (6:05 PM Beijing time on the same day).
2. Ripple announced a donation of $25 million to DonorsChoose (an American educational nonprofit) to promote financial literacy.
3. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged at 2:00 AM on May 8 is 97.3%.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: Last week's weekly line surged to the vicinity of 98 before pulling back, with the weekly line closing with a long upper shadow and a small positive candle. This week's important defense to watch is the support line at 91600. On the daily level, at the beginning of the month, a recent breakthrough surged to the 98 line, but due to uncertainties in the financial market, early short-term profit-taking, and the release of trapped positions from February, the daily line surged and then retreated, resulting in two consecutive bearish candles. It broke below the moving average support and rebounded to the daily 7-day moving average before continuing to weaken. The daily trend has entered a correction phase, with the important defense line this week around 91600. If this position is broken, it will fully open up a bearish market. The 4-hour line overall shows a trend of oscillating downward, with support forming around 938. For intraday operations, the key resistance to watch above is the 946-953 position, while the key support below is the 936-928 position.
ETH: The Ethereum mainnet upgrade is about to be completed, with the weekly line entering a narrow range of volume-adjusted oscillation. This week's important defense is at the 1750 line, with bottom-fishing opportunities below 1600 points and short-term pullback risks. The overall daily trend shows weak pullbacks, with K-line centers moving downward and trading volume shrinking. The current adjustment is a washout absorption behavior, which aids in the subsequent market explosion. The 4-hour line trend shows multiple surges followed by pullbacks, overall presenting a weak pullback trend in oscillation. For intraday operations, the key resistance to watch above is the 1810-1830 position, while support looks first at 1780, then at 1750.
Altcoins: The current cryptocurrency market is experiencing severe structural differentiation, influenced by multiple factors such as the macro environment, capital rotation, and regulatory expectations. Mainstream cryptocurrencies are showing strong rebounds and are relatively resilient, while altcoins have experienced larger pullbacks. From the perspective of the pullback cycle, this round of corrections, especially the strong performance of the AI and meme sectors last month, helps to lay the foundation for a stronger market in mid to late May. The first buying point was in mid-April, the market entered a correction phase in early May, and a second buying point may appear in mid to late May. Currently, it is advisable to observe the market and wait for the mainstream adjustment to end!
