$BTC

Tonight at 2:30, we're in the final circle, folks. Powell is coming out to speak; whatever he says will impact the market. The interest rate meeting is also a key focus. The midnight meeting at 2 AM is very likely not to result in a rate cut; keeping rates unchanged is something we all know. If there is a rate cut, it would be a surprise.

The current market is being led by policies and macroeconomic factors; only major news can create significant fluctuations. The latest CME data shows that the probability of a rate cut in June has plummeted from 68% to 31.8%, with the probability of no rate cut soaring to 67%. Powell has a two-thirds chance of adopting a hawkish stance tonight, with only a 30% chance of providing a sweetener.

No rate cut in May means Trump hands the problem over to Powell, who will decide after June, which likely means July. The probability of two rate cuts in 25 years is unlikely to be 100 basis points; it's estimated to be around 50-75. A 100 basis point cut is a small probability. So this bull market may need to lower expectations a bit, but the market has already begun to digest this kind of negative expectation news, so it can't be considered major news.

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