In the past week, the Bitcoin spot ETF saw a cumulative net inflow of $1.8051 billion, with net inflow occurring on four trading days. CoinAnk data shows that the ETF purchased approximately 18,644 Bitcoins during the week. Meanwhile, considering the approximately 450 Bitcoins mined daily after the Bitcoin halving, the ETF's purchase volume was nearly six times the miners' output during the same period. The total net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs has again surpassed $40 billion.

We believe that the recent data on capital inflows into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs indicates a significant imbalance in the market supply-demand structure and the dominant role of institutional investors. Last week's cumulative net inflow of the ETF, converted to purchase volume, was nearly six times the miners' output; this gap highlights that market demand far exceeds new supply, potentially exacerbating expectations of Bitcoin's scarcity and thus supporting its price.

In terms of capital scale, the total net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs has exceeded $40.2 billion, nearing a historical peak (the $40.78 billion on February 7, 2025). BlackRock's IBIT fund continues to lead, reflecting an increasing tendency for institutional investors to allocate Bitcoin through compliant channels. Notably, the ongoing net inflow of the ETF and the disparity with miners' output may raise concerns about market liquidity in the medium to long term. If demand remains high while supply is constrained by inefficient mining post-halving (with a daily output of about 450 Bitcoins), the supply-demand contradiction may further intensify.

However, the actual impact of ETFs on prices is limited. Although the total amount of Bitcoin held by the ETF accounts for over 5% of the circulating supply, historical data shows that capital inflows do not necessarily drive prices beyond previous highs. For instance, in June 2024, when the ETF experienced 18 consecutive days of net inflow, Bitcoin's price was still constrained by macro policies and geopolitical risks. Moreover, some funds may originate from arbitrage strategies (such as spot long and futures premium trading), rather than pure bullish expectations. Therefore, the dynamics of ETF capital must be assessed in conjunction with the macroeconomic cycle (such as Federal Reserve interest rate policies) and market structure (such as selling pressure from long-term holders).

The activity level of Bitcoin ETFs confirms the growing recognition of Bitcoin as a mainstream asset class, but the market must remain wary of short-term capital-driven volatility risks and liquidity challenges under supply-demand imbalances. In the future, if ETF capital inflows continue to surpass miners' output, combined with the onset of an interest rate cut cycle, it may provide more solid support for Bitcoin prices to break through.