$BTC At present, it seems very likely that the shorts will be liquidated first, and then depending on the FOMC speech tonight, the bulls will be liquidated...

Why do I have this expectation?

My reasoning is that if the market is heading towards a downward breakout scenario, then a key support level must accumulate enough bullish liquidity to trigger a chain reaction of continuous liquidations, thereby achieving a significant breakout effect;

Currently, it seems that the bullish liquidity below the price has actually accumulated over 80%, especially the starting point of the liquidation zone at 92800, which has also entered a liquidatable state!

Therefore, continued volatility with small-scale rebounds can liquidate the short-term high leverage shorts while attracting more bulls to enter the market, providing liquidity for the eventual breakout;

Due to the currently weak spot buying and continuously declining spot premiums, spot buying can only occur in the context of significant macro-positive news, such as Powell announcing the halt of QT tonight~ or unexpectedly deciding to start cutting interest rates or making very dovish remarks, etc...

Only under such circumstances can the constantly exiting spot supply be paused, or even bring in more spot buying, but in my view, the probability of such a situation is not high. I subjectively expect that the remarks will be somewhat dovish, but the positive effect will be limited;

So as long as strong demand in the spot market does not appear, it is difficult to break through 96500 relying on futures.