Market Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC)
Price and Data: As of May 7, Bitcoin's price stabilized around $72,331.39, with active trading volume maintained over 24 hours. The technical indicators show that the RSI is close to 70, at the edge of the overbought region, but has not yet reached extreme levels; the MACD remains in a golden cross state, with bullish momentum still strong. The price continues to run above the 50-day (approximately $91,330) and 200-day (approximately $85,300) moving averages, with a stable medium to long-term upward trend.
Key Support and Resistance: The short-term support level is around $68,000; if broken, it may trigger a technical pullback. The resistance level above looks towards the psychological level of $100,000, which may cause increased volatility due to profit-taking pressure.
Market Sentiment and Risk: Although market sentiment has not reached extreme greed, caution is required as prices approach historical highs, which may trigger corrections due to overheating sentiment. Additionally, fluctuations in macroeconomic data (e.g., Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations) and uncertainties in global regulatory policies may become short-term disturbance factors.
Ethereum (ETH)
Price and Data: The current price of Ethereum is approximately $1,839.20, with a 24-hour volatility of 1.95%. The technical indicators show that the RSI is in a neutral zone, while the MACD maintains bullish momentum, though weaker than Bitcoin. The price is running above the 50-day moving average, with a medium-term trend leaning positively, but overall performance slightly lags behind Bitcoin.
Key Support and Resistance: The short-term support level is at $1,800; breaking below may trigger further pullbacks. The resistance levels above focus on $1,950 and the $2,000 round number; breaking the latter will confirm an upward trend.
Fundamental Drivers: Continuous inflow of funds into Ethereum ETFs (e.g., a net inflow of 10,940 ETH on May 2, valued at approximately $20 million) shows institutional interest. Increased activity in the Layer 2 ecosystem and the EIP-4844 upgrade (Dencun) reduce transaction costs, enhancing long-term competitiveness.
Operational Strategy
Bitcoin (BTC)
Short-Term Strategy: If the price fluctuates in the $95,000-$100,000 range, a buy low, sell high strategy can be adopted, with stop-loss set 2%-3% below the lower edge of the range. If it breaks $100,000, be cautious of pullback risks, consider partial profit-taking while retaining core positions.
Medium to Long-Term Strategy: Maintain core positions (suggested 40%-50% of funds) and use pullback opportunities to increase positions; pay attention to the Federal Reserve's policy trends and global economic data. If interest rate cut expectations strengthen, moderate leverage may be applied.
Risk Warning: Avoid chasing highs in extreme overbought areas (RSI > 80) and strictly set stop-loss levels (e.g., $90,000).
Ethereum (ETH)
Short-Term Strategy: Operate in the $1,800-$1,950 range; increase positions after breaking $1,950, targeting $2,000. If it drops below $1,800, consider buying on dips, but control the position size (suggested 30% of funds).
Medium to Long-Term Strategy: Focus on signals of improvement in the ETH/BTC ratio; if the ratio breaks 0.025, increase ETH allocation. Actively participate in Layer 2 project staking or liquidity mining to obtain ecological dividends.
Risk Warning: Beware of technical bottlenecks in the Ethereum ecosystem (e.g., scaling issues) and regulatory risks; avoid excessive concentration in a single asset.
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