#美联储FOMC会议

1. Interest Rate Decision and Market Expectations

The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision at 12:00 AM Beijing time on May 8. The market widely expects the interest rate to remain unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, with a probability as high as 97.2%. The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged in June is 65.1%, with the first rate cut expectation postponed to July (probability 74.9%).

Supporting Factors:

① Inflation Cooling: March PCE price index year-on-year 2.3% (the lowest since last autumn), core PCE year-on-year 2.6%;

② Robust Employment: April non-farm payrolls added 177,000 jobs (exceeding the expected 138,000), unemployment rate steady at 4.2%, labor force participation rate rose to 62.6%.

2. Focus of Powell's Press Conference

Market attention is focused on Powell's statements regarding the following issues:

Inflation Outlook: Emphasizes concerns about tariff policies potentially pushing up inflation (such as Trump's recent tariffs on China), needing to balance economic support and price stability;

Policy Independence: Responds to White House pressure for rate cuts, reiterating the Fed's stance of not being subject to political interference;

Rate Cut Path: May release a “hawkish” signal, emphasizing the need for more data to verify inflation trends, clearly ruling out the possibility of a rate cut in June.

3. Economic Data and Policy Logic

Inflation Contradiction: Although March data improved, February core PCE was revised up to 0.5% (annualized 3.5% over the past three months), coupled with tariffs potentially leading to a rebound in imported inflation;

Growth Concerns: First-quarter GDP showed negative growth (-0.3%), mainly due to a surge in imports before tariffs, but consumer spending remains strong (+3%);

Job Resilience: Job openings ratio at 1.02%, hourly wage growth slowing, indicating signs of a “soft landing” in the labor market.

4. The Game Between Trump and the Federal Reserve

Conflict Easing: Trump recently stated that he would “not fire Powell early,” but continues to pressure for rate cuts, calling his actions “late and wrong;”

Policy Risks: If Powell refuses to signal a rate cut, it could trigger a new round of public criticism from Trump, increasing market volatility.

5. Future Policy Outlook

Rate Cut Conditions: Must meet ① tariffs have not caused sustained inflation; ② significant deterioration in the job market (e.g., unemployment rate exceeding 4.5%);

Time Window: July may become a key point, at which time the impact of tariffs on the economy and inflation will be clearer.