$BTC Market Drivers
Macroeconomic Policy:
The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, Powell warns of inflation risks, and market expectations for a June rate cut drop to 30%, but BTC shows resilience.
The U.S. OCC allows banks to engage in stablecoin business, enhancing institutional participation confidence.
Capital Flows:
ETF continues to see net inflows: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF has seen funds flow in for 16 consecutive days, with an additional 280 BTC (approximately $36 million) on a single day, totaling $6.96 billion year-to-date.
Exchange Net Outflows: On-chain data shows that net outflows of BTC from exchanges like Coinbase have increased, reflecting a tendency for long-term holding.
Market Sentiment:
Bitcoin futures open interest increases by $189 million, with trading volume growing by 15%, indicating accumulation of long positions.
Expectations for the Trump administration's "National Bitcoin Reserve" policy are fermenting, constituting a medium-term positive outlook.
IV. Operational Strategy Recommendations
Breakout Follow-up:
Entry Condition: Effective breakout above $98,000 and sustained with increased trading volume.
Target: $100,000 (short-term), $105,000-$112,000 (medium-term).
Stop Loss: Below $96,000, controlling the risk within 3%.
Buy on Dips:
Support Range: $94,500-$95,500, can buy in batches.
Stop Loss: Below $92,700, to prevent extreme pullbacks.
Risk Warning:
Be cautious of selling pressure in the $97,000-$98,000 range and the risk of "false breakouts."
Pay attention to economic data (such as CPI, PPI) before the Federal Reserve's June meeting and its impact on market sentiment.