At the current macro level, the market is engaged in a game of speculation surrounding expectations of economic recession and interest rate cuts. Recession, as a necessary prerequisite for interest rate cuts, supports the logic of a bearish trend.
However, short-selling operations are quite challenging — before the true panic of a recession sets in, the market may anytime rally back to previous highs, triggering short liquidations.
On a micro short-term level, taking last Friday's Bitcoin reaching 97800 points as an example, although it was only 300 points higher than the anticipated 97500, there were few daring to short at that time.
The market gradually pushed up by 1000 - 2000 points, overturning most people's judgment that "95000 is the top," disrupting trading rhythm and exacerbating uncertainty and panic.
As many investors adopt a high-leverage full-position strategy, it is difficult to withstand fluctuations at levels like 98000 and 99000, leading to a dilemma in operations: either successfully shorting at very small points or cutting losses to exit, significantly increasing trading difficulty.
This also explains why some advocate setting the stop-loss level at 120000 for more safety.
Despite the market being in a downtrend channel, as previously judged, the crossover support level around 92000 could be a good opportunity to close shorts and open longs.
However, when the price actually touches, bulls may hesitate whether to wait for lower points, while bears anticipate a rebound to 95000, and opportunities often slip away in hesitation.
If one seeks certainty in large range opportunities, they must endure solitude to seize market opportunities.
