[One] The crypto market is not actually waiting for the FOMC results, but for 'directional confirmation'.
The Federal Reserve is about to meet again, and the FOMC has become the focus of the entire market.
The crypto market seems very tense, but in reality, the heart has long been numb.
Why?
Because in today's crypto market, it’s not about betting on whether rates will rise or not, but about betting on one question:
When will the Federal Reserve back down and start cutting rates?
Once this direction is clear, the market can take off. It's not a short-term riot, but a medium-term trend reversal.
And before that? It’s all a state of playing dead.
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[Two] The end of the rate hike cycle, the crypto market is waiting for spring in the 'frozen zone'
Looking back at the past two years:
• The Federal Reserve has raised rates more than a dozen times, and Bitcoin still rose from 16,000 to 70,000;
• The market hasn’t risen, but the rise is too distorted, lacking confidence, direction, and explosive power;
• It’s not about 'whether to speculate' now, but 'when can we safely go ALL IN'.
The FOMC essentially decides:
When can this 'pressure cooker' of rate hikes release steam, and when can risk assets lift their heads to breathe?
Therefore, the crypto market is not focused on the dot plot, the rate hike magnitude, or even what Powell says,
The crypto market only looks at —
When will dollar liquidity loosen, and when will risk appetite turn?
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[Three] Three outcomes, but the crypto market only recognizes one.
1. Hawkish continues (more hikes or long-term high rates):
US bonds rise, the dollar is strong, Bitcoin is flat, and altcoins are directly dead.
The crypto market rolls its eyes: whether you speak or not, it's respectful to leave first.
2. Neutral to tight (no rate hike but a tough stance):
Maintaining stability expectations, the market is stagnant, and funds continue to lie in bank accounts.
The crypto market continues to fluctuate, and no one dares to act.
3. Clearly dovish (implying a rate cut is likely in the second half of the year):
Risk appetite is fully warming up, and funds are cautiously testing the waters.
The crypto market immediately erupts, ETH, Sol, and Dogecoin all resurrect.
Do you see it?
The crypto market is not afraid of bad news, but fears the lack of certainty.
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[Four] The FOMC is not a panacea, but a trigger for a bull market.
For the crypto market to start, three conditions must be met:
• Liquidity is easing (the Federal Reserve gives the green light)
• Regulatory easing (ETH ETF approval is just the beginning)
• The market narrative is clear (AI narrative must be genuinely implemented, L2, RWA, and Sol ecosystems need to shoulder the volume)
And the FOMC meeting decides the first major premise: the starting point of liquidity.
Only when this faucet is turned on can the remaining themes, chips, and FOMO emotions truly run.
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[Conclusion] Stop getting tangled up in whether to raise or not, the crypto market only cares about 'when to start抢'.
The FOMC is not a miracle cure for the market, but it determines: Are you holding onto your chips steadily or waiting in line to exit first?
Whether to raise or lower rates is not important, what matters is —
When can I openly go long, hold, double, and control the market?
That day will not automatically arrive because of the meeting.
But this meeting may be the first gunshot of the 'bull market countdown'.
