1. Necessary conditions for the end of pullback: Stabilizing above 1833 on the 4-hour level
1. Technical significance of key positions
- 1833 is the dividing line between bulls and bears in the current 4-hour horizontal fluctuation range. If the price closes above this position for 4 consecutive hours, it can be seen as a short-term bullish control returning to rhythm, and the pullback officially ends.
- Judgment criteria for stabilization: Need to observe the K-line body (not the upper shadow) completely breaking through this price level, and the trading volume should moderately increase to avoid 'false breakout' traps.
2. Analysis of upward targets and resistance levels
- First resistance level 1848: Corresponds to the recent upper range of horizontal trading and is also an area of intensive trading during the day, which may trigger short-term selling pressure.
- Second resistance level 1872: Position of the 20-day moving average on the 4-hour level; if this level is broken, the market is expected to extend towards higher time-frame repair needs (daily level).
- Third resistance level 1903: Near the daily downtrend line, it is a key threshold for determining the strength of the upward trend after the pullback ends. If it stabilizes here, it may initiate a new round of upward trend.
2. Risks of weak upward movement: Strategies for not stabilizing above 1833
1. Maintain bottom horizontal trading
- If the price continues to fluctuate below 1833, it indicates insufficient bullish momentum, and the market may continue the horizontal consolidation pattern, need to pay attention to the support strength at the lower range.
- Horizontal trading logic: Buy high and sell low between 1833 (upper limit) and 1815 (lower limit), quick in and out, avoid holding positions for too long.
2. Downside space after breaking support
- First support level 1815: Lower limit of the horizontal trading range, if it breaks below this point, the market may further drop to 1792 (corresponding to the lower band of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands).
- Second support level 1792: Technically oversold area, if it stabilizes here, it can be viewed as an opportunity for short-term long positions, with stop loss set below 1792.
- Third support level 1762: Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level, if it breaks below this position, the market may drop to around 1700, and the risk of a trending decline should be monitored.
3. Trading suggestions and risk warnings
1. Aggressive strategy (short-term speculation)
- Breakout scenario: After stabilizing above 1833, lightly try long positions, targeting 1848-1872, with a stop loss at 1825 (below the dividing line).
- Horizontal trading scenario: Short when approaching 1833, long when approaching 1815, targets 10-15 points each, stop loss 5-8 points.
2. Conservative strategy (trend confirmation)
- Wait for daily closing confirmation of direction: If it stabilizes above 1833 for more than 24 hours, then follow up with long positions; if it breaks below 1792 and closes negative in 4 hours, watch or go light on shorts.
3. Core of risk control
- Stop loss must be included: Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, it is recommended to control the stop loss range within 1%-2% of the position, and during horizontal trading, the stop loss space can be appropriately reduced.
- Pay attention to time windows: Increased trading volume may trigger a breakout, closely monitor the changes at the 1833 position.
4. Summary: Key focus on the effectiveness of 'stabilizing' and 'breaking'
- Core logic of upward movement: Break and stabilize above 1833 on the 4-hour level, indicating that bullish strength dominates and the pullback has ended.
- Core logic of horizontal trading/downtrend: Unable to break key levels, short positions continue to suppress or enter a fluctuation, need to be wary of further drops triggered by breaking 1815.
- Trading mantra: Do not chase highs after a breakout, do not chase gains during horizontal trading, take good stop losses and wait for confirmation, increase positions when the trend is clear.$ETH #ETH走势分析 
