Overview: Current technical signals indicate that the market is in a state of indecision, with no clear trend established. Below is a detailed analysis from key indicators and corresponding position opening strategies.
1. EMA Moving Average: Trend is not clear.
The short-term EMA line (EMA7) sometimes exceeds EMA25 (as in the 1D frame: EMA7 = 12.67 > EMA25 = 11.45), but it can also be cut down (4h frame: EMA7 = 12.19 < EMA25 = 12.80).
This shows that buyers and sellers are in dispute, and the trend is not yet clear.
Strategy: Wait for a clear confirmation from EMA7 crossing above EMA25 to open a buying order, or vice versa to consider selling.
2. RSI: Divergence signal and oversold zone.
The RSI(6) indicator oscillates in the low range, from 15.83 (oversold) to 41.66 (neutral).
RSI = 15.83 (4h frame) is a potential reversal signal.
RSI = 41.66 (15M frame) indicates an undecided state.
Strategy: If RSI < 30 and MACD shows signs of turning positive, this may be a good time to open a buying position.
3. MACD: Slight divergence signal.
MACD slightly positive on the 1D frame (0.09) indicates weak upward momentum.
However, MACD remains negative in other frames (1h and 4h), reflecting ongoing selling pressure.
Strategy: Wait for the DIF line to cross above the DEA line to confirm upward momentum. Conversely, if DIF crosses downwards, consider a selling position.
4. Volume and OBV: The cash flow does not support the upward trend.
Volume fluctuates significantly: The 1D frame recorded 16 billion USDT, while the 15M frame only recorded 39k - indicating unstable cash flow.
OBV is mainly negative (1D frame: -153 billion; 4h frame: -241 billion) → cash flow is still exiting the market.
Strategy: Wait for OBV to reverse strongly upwards along with superior volume to confirm a clear upward trend.
5. Sensitive time frame: From 28/03 to 04/05/2025
This could be a period related to macroeconomic events or derivatives contract expirations. Unexpected volatility may occur.
Strategy: Closely monitor news, limit holding positions overnight if the market trend is not clear.
Position opening strategy.
Scenario 1 - BUY when the upward trend is confirmed.
Conditions:
EMA7 crosses above EMA25.
RSI(6) exceeds 30.
MACD turns positive.
OBV increases sharply, volume spikes.
Probability of success: 60–70%.
Scenario 2 - SELL when selling pressure continues.
Conditions:
EMA7 crosses below EMA25.
RSI(6) approaches or exceeds 70.
MACD turns distinctly negative.
OBV continues to decline.
Probability of success: 55–65%.
Risk management and profit targets.
Stop-loss: 11.00 USDT (near the support zone).
Take-profit: When the price hits EMA99 (~14.88 USDT) or RSI exceeds 60.
Conclusion.
The current market is in a state of indecision, requiring caution and patience to wait for clear signals from EMA, RSI, and MACD. In both scenarios, a buy order has a higher probability of success if the consensus conditions are confirmed. Tight risk management will be key to success during this period.