Technical analysis summary from the chart:
1. Price trend (EMA)
In most charts, the short-term EMA line (EMA 7) continuously lies below EMA 25 and EMA 99, reflecting that the short-term downward trend is still dominant.
However, a notable point appears in the 1D chart when the EMA 7 crosses above the EMA 25. Nevertheless, the EMA 99 is still higher, indicating that this signal needs more time to confirm its sustainability.
2. RSI indicator
RSI(6) fluctuates from the oversold region 23.4 (4H timeframe) to the neutral level 54.69 (5M timeframe).
RSI(12) and RSI(24) remain below the 50 mark, confirming a weakening trend, however, there are signs of a short-term bottom formation – possibility of a technical rebound.
3. MACD
MACD shows negative divergence when the DIF line is below the DEA in most charts (except for the 1D timeframe), reflecting that the downward momentum is still dominant.
Positive signs appear in the 1H timeframe when MACD is negative but gradually narrowing, indicating that the downward momentum is weakening and a technical rebound may occur.
4. Trading volume
Volume in many charts such as the 15M and 4H timeframes is below the average MA(5) and MA(15), indicating weak buying pressure.
However, the 1D timeframe recorded a surge in volume to over 13.7 million, while MACD turned positive – this could be a potential reversal signal that needs close monitoring.
5. OBV (On-Balance Volume)
OBV remains negative across most charts, in agreement with the downward trend.
A few cases like the 15M and 1D timeframe show positive OBV, which may reflect a short-term buying pressure return.
Trading strategy and probability of success
Scenario 1: Buy – Probability 55-60%
Activation conditions:
RSI(6) falls into the oversold zone (<30) + MACD starts to converge (DIF crosses above DEA).
Volume spikes and price rises above EMA(7) as in the 1D timeframe
Take profit target: EMA(25) area around 3.28 – 3.33.
Stop loss: Below the nearest bottom around 3.245.
Scenario 2: Short selling – Probability 65-70%
Activation conditions:
RSI(6) remains above 50 but does not exceed 60.
Negative MACD continues to expand + price below all 3 EMAs (7, 25, 99).
Take profit target: Psychological support area 3.20 – 3.15.
Stop loss: Above EMA(7) or the nearest peak 3.26 – 3.27.
Scenario 3: Further observation (Sideway) – Probability 40%
If the price continues to hover around 3.25 – 3.26 with a neutral RSI (40-50), one should stay out and wait for clearer signals.
Conclusion
Preferred strategy: Short selling, due to the downward trend still being dominant, especially when RSI cannot break above 50 and MACD remains negative.
Buying strategy should only be considered if there is clear confirmation from strong volume increase and MACD turning positive.
Probability of success:
Short selling: ~65–70%
Buy: ~55–60%
Note: Always use risk management with stop-loss orders and combine multi-timeframe analysis (1H, 4H) to increase the reliability of signals.