SOL/USDT is currently in a consolidation phase and shows signs leaning toward a short-term downtrend. Let's conduct a detailed technical analysis to determine the appropriate opening position.

1. Price trend and EMA: Lack of consistency, warns of correction

  • The price is currently around 146.80 USDT, slightly down from -0.60% to -0.62%, reflecting market hesitation.

  • The short-term moving average (EMA 7) occasionally crosses above the long-term EMA (EMA 25/99) in some frames, but largely remains below.

  • Signal: If the price continues to stay below EMA(7) and EMA(25), the downtrend may persist.

2. RSI indicator: Lacks clear signals, but shows slight recovery

  • RSI(6) fluctuates from 29.48 to 51.15 — has touched the oversold area and is recovering slightly.

  • RSI(12) and RSI(24) fluctuate around the neutral area (38.85–57.54 and 42.95–53.40).

  • Signal: Although there is no clear overbought/oversold signal yet, the short-term RSI recovery from the bottom may support the price.

3. MACD: Negative divergence warns of selling pressure

  • On the latest chart, the DIF slightly exceeds the DEA → weak buy signal.

  • However, other charts show DIF < DEA, reflecting continued downward pressure.

  • Signal: MACD is showing negative divergence — warning of potential continued correction.

4. Volume and OBV: Lack of strong inflow

  • Trading volume is gradually decreasing (from 1.06M to only 7,930.58).

  • OBV is in the negative zone → more money is flowing out than in.

  • Signal: The market currently lacks strong growth momentum.

5. Time-based warning: Volatility may increase

  • The period from 03/04 to 04/05/2025 may coincide with major events such as futures contract expirations or news affecting market sentiment.

  • Note: It is necessary to enhance monitoring of volatility around these timelines.

Proposed trading strategy

Scenario 1: Open Long position (BUY)

When to enter?

  • Price exceeds EMA(7) (~147.23–147.74)

  • RSI(6) exceeds 50

  • MACD turns clearly positive (DIF > DEA)

Target

  • TP: 151.40–153.99 (near resistance)

  • SL: Below EMA(25) (~141.27–148.46)

  • Probability of success: ~50% (signal not strong enough from RSI and volume)

Scenario 2: Open Short position (SELL)

When to enter?

  • Price below EMA(25)

  • RSI(6) below 40

  • MACD maintains negative signal (DIF < DEA)

Target

  • TP: 144.84–141.57 (near support zone)

  • SL: Above EMA(7) (~147.23–147.74)

  • Probability of success: 55–60% (consistent with the current trend from MACD and OBV)

Summary: Should we prioritize Short?

  • Prioritize Short strategy in the short term due to:

    • MACD negative divergence

    • Negative OBV

    • Volume weakening

  • Main risk: Strong volatility may occur at the beginning of May

  • Recommendation: Always set stop-loss and limit risk to below 2% of total account for each trade. Closely monitor news and macro events.

Which coin strategy are you interested in next? Please leave a comment below!

$SOL