ETH/USDT is showing interesting technical signals, reflected through synchronized analysis from trends, momentum, volume, and important indicators. Below is a summary and detailed assessment based on 4 technical charts (15M Frame, 1h Frame, 4h Frame, and 1D Frame).
1. Trend: Short-term increase but needs caution
In 3/4 of the charts (15M Frame, 1H Frame, 4h Frame), the short-term EMA(7) is above the medium-term EMA(25) and long-term EMA(99), confirming a short-term uptrend.
However, in the 1D Frame, EMA(7) has crossed down EMA(25) and the distance to EMA(99) has widened (~2,132.94), indicating signs of weakening or a slight reversal possibility.
Summary: The short-term trend still leans towards increasing, but signs of overextension and divergence are appearing.
2. RSI: Slightly overbought, no clear divergence.
RSI(6) fluctuates in the range of 62.67–75.19, warning of slight overbought conditions at certain times.
RSI(12) and RSI(24) remain in the neutral zone (57.49–61.81 and 50.11–58.54).
Assessment: If RSI(6) exceeds 70, a short-term correction may occur, but there are no signs of strong downward divergence yet.
3. MACD: Momentum is fluctuating erratically.
15m Frame, 1h Frame: MACD is positive, DIF > DEA → momentum is increasing.
4h Frame: MACD is negative, DIF < DEA → signs of weakening.
1D Frame: MACD rebounds strongly (24.98), DIF > DEA → back to increasing.
Conclusion: MACD shows instability, further monitoring of other supporting factors is needed to confirm the next direction.
4. Volume and OBV: Lack of confirmation, risk of 'price trap'
Volume in 3/4 of the chart is below the MA(5) and MA(15) average lines, indicating that buying power is not strong enough to confirm an uptrend.
In the 1D Frame, volume spikes but the price does not break out → it may be a 'price trap' signal.
OBV is negative for most of the time, showing that long-term selling pressure still prevails. In the 1D Frame, although OBV turns positive, MA(7) remains negative, which is not convincing enough.
Proposed trading strategy
Scenario 1: Swing trading (preferred)
Conditions: Price above EMA(7) and EMA(25), RSI(6) < 70, MACD is positive.
Enter the trade: When the price retests EMA(7) around 1,837–1,841.
Take profit: Near the resistance zone at 1,860.
Stop loss: Below EMA(25) (~1,833).
Success probability: 60–65% (due to lack of confirmation from volume and OBV).
Scenario 2: Short sell when there are signs of reversal
Conditions: Price below EMA(99), clearly negative OBV, RSI(6) > 70 with downward divergence.
Enter the trade: When the price breaks support at 1,810.
Take profit: Around 1,770.
Stop loss: Above the old resistance zone at 1,844.
Success probability: 55–60% (against the main trend).
Scenario 3: Stay out, wait for a clear signal
If the price exceeds 1,880 with high volume → Buy.
If the price breaks below 1,770 and OBV continues to decrease → Sell.
Higher safety ratio (70%), suitable for risk-averse investors.
Risks to be aware of
Main risk: Low volume and negative OBV may make the bullish signal unsustainable.
Macroeconomic note: Volatility from news about Ethereum ETFs may strongly affect trends in the short term.
Conclusion
ETH is in a technical recovery phase with signs of short-term increase, but trading volume and OBV do not strongly support it. The short-term buying scenario (Buy) can still be exploited if there are good entry points, but trading volume should be reduced to limit risks and always closely monitor reversal signals.