$BTC May 4, 2025 02:52-02:53, (Creating is not easy, please like + follow, thank you 🙏)
Price is 96,153.05 USDT (-1.12%)
• Current wave structure:
• Wave 1: April 20, 83,949.52 USDT to April 25, 91,279.33 USDT (+8.7%).
• Wave 2: April 25, 91,279.33 USDT to April 30, 92,800.01 USDT (slight retracement).
• Wave 3: April 30, 92,800.01 USDT to May 2, 97,995.68 USDT (+5.6%).
• Wave 4 (Current): May 2, 97,995.68 USDT to current 96,153.05 USDT, adjustment target is a 38.2%-50% retracement of Wave 3, i.e., 95,500-94,800 USDT.
• Wave 5 (Expected): After adjustment, it may rise to 100,000-102,000 USDT.
• Analysis: Currently in Wave 4 adjustment, may continue to probe down to 94,800-95,500 USDT, then start Wave 5 upward.
1-hour K-line chart (sub-wave level)
• Current sub-wave: a-b-c pattern within Wave 4:
• Wave a: May 2, 97,995.68 USDT to May 3, 95,522.29 USDT.
• Wave b: May 3, 95,522.29 USDT to May 4, 97,315.82 USDT.
• Wave c (Current): May 4, 97,315.82 USDT to current 96,153.05 USDT, may continue to drop to 95,500 USDT.
• Analysis: 1-hour level shows c wave adjustment is not yet over, may continue to probe down in the short term.
1) Bearish Factors
• US April non-farm data (May 2): 177,000 new jobs, US dollar strengthens, BTC under pressure.
• DeFi TVL decline (May 2): TVL $610 million, down 10.07%, intensified capital outflow.
• Capital flow: Main net outflow -3,633.4225 BTC, bearish pressure in the short term.
(2) Bullish Factors
• Buffett's statement (May 3):
• Concerns about US fiscal policy may drive safe-haven demand, benefiting BTC.
• Looking for investment opportunities may drive funds into risk assets, benefiting BTC.
• Long-term optimism for the Japanese market may boost confidence in the Asian market, indirectly benefiting BTC.
• Retail inflow: net inflow +29.5880 BTC, potentially providing support for a rebound.
Short-term forecast
• Trend: Continue to adjust to 94,800-95,500 USDT, then rebound to 100,000 USDT.
• Support levels: 95,871.67 USDT, 94,800 USDT.
• Resistance levels: 96,328.93 USDT, 98,065.84 USDT.
• Trading Suggestions:
• Wait and see, accumulate positions on a pullback to 94,800-95,500 USDT, target 97,500 USDT, stop loss 94,000 USDT.
• Break through 96,328.93 USDT to chase long positions, target 98,000 USDT, stop loss 95,500 USDT.#数字资产法案 #加密市场反弹 #比特币战略储备
