(1) Non-farm employment data (20:35 news flash)
• US April non-farm employment data:
• New jobs: 177,000, higher than the expected 138,000, but lower than the previous value of 228,000.
• Unemployment rate: 4.2%, consistent with expectations and previous value.
• Average hourly wage growth: 0.85%, consistent with previous value.
• Market reaction:
• Employment data better than expected, stock index futures (S&P 500, Dow Jones) up 0.85%, indicating optimistic market sentiment.
• Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates four times in 2025, but better-than-expected data may delay the rate cuts.
(2) Impact on BTC price
• Short-term impact:
• Employment data better than expected, rising stock indices may divert funds, BTC price fell from 97,021.32 USDT (20:31) to 96,877.35 USDT (20:33), indicating short-term pressure.
• RSI is near overbought (64.01), volume has decreased, which may indicate a short-term price pullback.
• Mid-term impact:
• If interest rate cut expectations are delayed, the US dollar index may strengthen, and BTC as a non-dollar asset may continue to face pressure, targeting 94,000-95,000 USDT.
• If subsequent economic data worsens and interest rate cut expectations rise, BTC may rebound to 98,000-100,000 USDT.
4. Trends and trading suggestions
(1) Short-term trend (1-7 days)
• Technical analysis:
• Price is close to the upper Bollinger Band (97,555.90 USDT), but the RSI is near overbought, which may face pullback pressure.
• MACD golden cross supports bullish outlook, but volume has decreased, indicating insufficient upward momentum.
• Liquidity (referencing previous data):
• 24-hour net inflow of 118.2545 BTC, but 5-day net outflow of -2,880.1233 BTC, indicating signs of distribution at high levels.#非农就业数据来袭
